国信期货苹果周报：多头止盈离场，盘面高位回落-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - As of March 12, 2026, the national cold storage inventory of apples was 4.4404 million tons, with a cold storage inventory ratio of about 33.72%, 2.29 percentage points lower than the same period last year. There is a supply gap due to the low proportion of high - quality goods. The national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.01 percentage points this week, and the de - stocking rate was 39.65%. The price of high - quality apples in the northwest产区 may continue to rise slightly in March, and the national apple price may show a pattern of stronger in the west and weaker in the east. As cold - stored apples enter the middle and late stages of sales, the price difference between large and small fruits may further widen. The long positions have significantly reduced, and the market has fallen from its high. Due to the decline in the high - quality fruit rate, there is still some support at the bottom. It is recommended to adopt an interval - trading strategy [35]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The main contract of apple futures, AP2605, hit a new high and then fell sharply. The market reduced positions as long positions took profits and left the market [8]. 3.2 Supply - side Situation - As of March 12, 2026, the national cold storage inventory was 4.4404 million tons, and the cold storage inventory ratio was about 33.72%, 2.29 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The inventory structure shows that the proportion of high - quality goods is relatively small [12]. 3.3 Demand - side Situation - Inventory Removal: As of March 12, 2026, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.01 percentage points this week (from March 5th to 11th, 2026), and the de - stocking rate was 39.65%. In the Shandong production area, foreign trade merchants mainly purchase small and medium - sized fruits, and the sales of fruit preserves are also good. In the Shaanxi production area, merchants mainly purchase, pack and ship in northern Shaanxi. It is difficult to find suitable supplies, and some cold storages have a certain sentiment of reluctant to sell [16]. - Export: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. Affected by Christmas and New Year's Day, overseas demand increased, and the export volume increased significantly month - on - month. The first quarter is the peak export season for fresh apples, and the export volume is expected to remain at a high level [18]. - Substitute Fruit Prices: Not provided in the given content - Spot Prices in Production Areas: As of March 12th, the apple price in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was stable. The intended price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's slice - red apples was 3.7 - 4.0 yuan per catty, and that of striped apples was 4.0 - 4.7 yuan per catty. The intended price of 80 and above first - and second - grade merchant's goods was 4.2 - 5.2 yuan per catty. The price of 80 and above first - to third - grade fruit farmer's supplies was 3.0 - 3.5 yuan per catty, the price of general goods was 2.5 - 3.0 yuan per catty, and the price of third - grade apples was 1.8 - 2.5 yuan per catty. The mainstream transaction price of 70 apples was 2.2 - 2.3 yuan per catty [31].