纸浆周报：延续低位震荡，关注需求企稳情况-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 continued its low - level oscillation pattern. The weak downstream demand restricted the upward movement of the market. Although the downstream paper mills' demand for pulp has improved slightly, the pace is slow. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high historical level. The external market price continues to rise, providing some support for the cost of pulp prices. If the demand improves, it is recommended to consider buying on dips [7][36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 This Week's Market Review - The pulp futures main contract SP2605 continued its low - level oscillation. Weak downstream demand made it difficult for the market to rise [7]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Price: As of March 10, the monthly average prices of imported softwood pulp, imported chemimechanical pulp, and imported hardwood pulp were 5,251.24 yuan/ton, 3,883.33 yuan/ton, and 4,564.70 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 0.61%, - 0.01%, and +0.20% [12]. - Import Volume: From January to February 2026, China's pulp imports were 6.044 billion tons, with an import value of 3.48 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 575.78 US dollars/ton. The cumulative import volume and value decreased by 5.4% and 12.8% respectively compared with the same period last year [16][36]. - Domestic Port Inventory: As of March 12, 2026, the weekly total inventory of pulp in major Chinese regions and ports decreased by 5.52% month - on - month, changing from an upward trend to a downward one. The destocking situation of domestic pulp ports needs to be observed [20]. - European Port Inventory: In January 2026, the total inventory in European ports decreased by 14.72% month - on - month and 11.34% compared with January 2025. The port inventories in most European countries showed a reduction trend [23]. - Downstream Capacity and Start - up Rate: Waste paper pulp accounts for 63% of China's total pulp consumption. In March, there is no new production capacity for white cardboard and coated paper. Double - offset paper has an expected trial run of 300,000 tons of new capacity at the end of the month, and tissue paper has an expected production of 120,000 tons of new capacity. The operating rate of downstream enterprises has increased, but the pace is slow [30]. 3.3 Future Outlook - The import volume and value from January to February 2026 decreased compared with the same period last year. In March, the operating rate of most downstream paper mills has returned to normal, and the demand for pulp has improved slightly but slowly. The domestic pulp port inventory is still at a relatively high level. The external market prices of major producing countries continue to rise, increasing the subsequent import cost and providing some support for pulp prices. If the demand improves, it is recommended to consider buying on dips [36].