格林大华期货早盘提示：国债-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures generally rose slightly, and Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [1][2] - Wande A-Share Index fell 0.53% on Thursday, with a trading volume of 2.46 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.53 trillion yuan [2] - Transactional investors are advised to conduct band operations [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On Thursday, the main contracts of Treasury bond futures opened mostly lower, rose in the morning session, fluctuated horizontally after the pullback, and had a wave of rally near the end of the session. As of the close, the 30-year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2606 rose 0.12%, the 10-year T2606 rose 0.04%, the 5-year TF2606 rose 0.02%, and the 2-year TS2606 rose 0.02% [1] - Wande A-Share Index opened slightly lower on Thursday, continued to decline in the morning session, rebounded in the afternoon, and closed with a small doji阴线, down 0.53%, with a trading volume of 2.46 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous trading day's 2.53 trillion yuan [2] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 24.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 23 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 1.5 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the interbank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.33%, and the weighted average of the previous trading day was 1.37%; the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.47%, and the weighted average of the previous trading day was 1.46% [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of interbank Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2-year Treasury bonds decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.36%, the 5-year decreased by 1.02 BP to 1.55%, the 10-year decreased by 0.23 BP to 1.81%, and the 30-year decreased by 0.99 BP to 2.34% [1] - The central bank held a symposium of economic and financial experts, stating that in the next stage, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase the intensity of counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [1] - Iran's new supreme leader's first statement: Will not give up revenge, the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, and new fronts will be opened if necessary. Trump said that when oil prices rise, we make a lot of money; it is important to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons. Iranian diplomatic officials said that some countries' ships are allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. If coordinated with the Iranian navy, many ships can still pass through the strait [1] Market Logic - In US dollar terms, China's exports increased by 21.8% year-on-year from January to February, better than the estimated 7.3%, and the year-on-year increase in December last year was 6.6% [1] - China's CPI rose 1.3% year-on-year in February, exceeding the market expectation of 0.9%; the PPI decreased 0.9% year-on-year, better than the market expectation of a 1.2% year-on-year decrease. The overall inflation level in China rebounded more than expected in February. The core CPI rose 0.7% month-on-month in February, and the PPI rose 0.4% month-on-month [1] - Recently, the central bank governor said in an interview that in 2026, China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [1]