格林大华期货早盘提示：钢矿-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel and ore industry is "Oscillating" [1] Core View - Steel demand is gradually starting, and it is expected that finished products and iron ore will oscillate upward. Attention should be paid to the demand recovery situation, with a focus on daily building material transactions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, rebar, hot-rolled coils, and iron ore continued to close higher. The night session opened higher with a gap and closed with a negative line [1] Important Information - As of March 11 (the 23rd day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 42.5%, a month-on-month increase of 19 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 5.2 percentage points. The labor attendance rate was 43.9%, a month-on-month increase of 14.2 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 5.8 percentage points. The fund arrival rate was 42.8%, a month-on-month increase of 7.4 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 0.8 percentage points [1] - US President Trump said that Powell should immediately cut interest rates instead of waiting for the next Fed meeting to do so [1] Market Logic - Iron ore cargo ships originally bound for the Middle East have changed their course to China, and attention should be paid to the impact on iron ore supply [1] - This week, rebar production, inventory, and apparent demand all increased. Production increased significantly, with a week-on-week increase of 21.99 tons. Inventory continued to accumulate, but the accumulation rate slowed down significantly. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 78.58 tons week-on-week, indicating that rebar demand has started. Overall, the current rebar inventory pressure is not large [1] - Hot-rolled coil production this week was 2.9526 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 58,500 tons, with two consecutive weeks of decline. The total inventory was 4.7159 million tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week. The factory inventory was 892,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 8,000 tons, and the social inventory was 3.8231 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 7,000 tons. The factory inventory decreased while the social inventory increased slightly, and the total inventory remained basically flat. The apparent demand this week was 2.9536 million tons, an increase of 137,900 tons from last week, almost the same as the production, indicating a tight balance between supply and demand for hot-rolled coils [1] - After the Two Sessions, iron production is likely to rebound rapidly, and it is estimated that the incremental demand for iron ore will be significant [1] - The increase in crude oil prices has increased the transportation cost of iron ore [1] - The forward price of iron ore continued to rise, breaking through $110 [1] - This week, the daily iron production was 2.212 million tons, a weekly decrease of 63,900 tons. Production restrictions during the Two Sessions were an important factor, which stimulated the market to open higher [1] Trading Strategy - The demand for steel products is gradually starting. It is expected that finished products and iron ore will oscillate upward. Continue to pay attention to the demand recovery situation, with a focus on daily building material transactions. The support level for rebar is 3,000, and the resistance level is 3,200. The support level for hot-rolled coils is 3,180, and the resistance level is 3,300. The support level for iron ore is 730, and the resistance level is 800. Pay attention to whether the resistance levels can be broken [1] - Single position: Hold existing long positions in rebar and hot-rolled coils, and set stop-loss levels [1] - Arbitrage: The supply of hot-rolled coils is shrinking, demand is recovering, and the inventory pressure is less than that of rebar, with a better supply-demand structure. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue to widen. Hold existing long hot-rolled coil and short rebar arbitrage positions, and it is recommended to raise the stop-loss level to 120 and the take-profit level to over 200 [1]