固收周报：长短端表现分化，微观结构隐现支撑-20260313

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - This week, the yields of short - and long - term bonds showed a significant divergence. The short - term yield declined, the long - term yield increased slightly, and the ultra - long - term yield rose significantly. The bond market divergence this week was the result of the combined effects of fundamental expectations, capital supply and demand, and micro - structure. The upward movement of long - and ultra - long - term yields mainly reflected the weak recovery expectations of the fundamentals and the marginal tightening of liquidity. In the future, the bond market will enter a critical data verification and expectation game period. With the weak economic fundamentals and the unchanged moderately loose monetary policy, the upward space of yields is limited, and it is expected to maintain a volatile pattern [3][9]. Group 3: Summary by Section 1. Fundamental Aspect - Economic data showed a mixed picture, and the sustainability of economic recovery needed further observation. This week's import and export data and price data indicated an "external strong, internal weak" economic pattern. External demand exceeded expectations, with the cumulative year - on - year export growth rate in February reaching 21.8% and the cumulative year - on - year import growth rate reaching 19.8%. Internal prices showed a mild recovery, with the CPI growth rate increasing by 1.1 percentage points to 1.3% and the PPI decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points to - 0.9%. However, the domestic demand data such as investment and consumption had not been released, and the weak domestic demand pattern had not been fundamentally reversed. The conflict between the US and Iran might disrupt China's trade and crude oil imports, and the sustainability of fundamental recovery was still uncertain, which would limit the upward space of yields to some extent [4]. 2. Policy Aspect - The central bank carried out precise regulation, maintaining an overall moderately loose tone, while the liquidity showed marginal tightening. This week, the scale of maturing funds decreased significantly, and the central bank's monetary investment also shrank accordingly, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 10.11 billion yuan. The expiration of 15 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits also had a short - term impact on liquidity. Next week, 60 billion yuan of repurchase funds will mature in the market, which is expected to affect short - term liquidity. Overall, the "moderately loose" monetary policy tone remained unchanged, but it entered a data observation period, awaiting further economic data verification [5][6]. 3. Supply Aspect - The bond maturity scale was higher than the issuance scale, and the supply pressure was temporarily relieved. The supply factor was the main reason for the divergence of bond yields this week. The net financing of the bond market was negative, with the overall bond maturity scale reaching 2.17 trillion yuan, exceeding the issuance scale of 1.97 trillion yuan, and the net financing amount decreasing by 200 billion yuan. The issuance of certificate - type savings treasury bonds diverted some individual funds, reducing the selling pressure in the secondary market. The net financing of treasury bonds decreased by 351 billion yuan, while the supply of local government bonds increased slightly by about 63.2 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in the ultra - long - term. The arrangement of additional ultra - long special treasury bonds by the Ministry of Finance this week would have an important impact on the bond market, increasing the upward pressure on ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds in the short term and potentially bringing new stabilizing factors if the central bank's supporting policies were implemented in the medium term [7]. 4. Capital Aspect - The capital interest rate center rose slightly, and bank liabilities provided a safety cushion. The liquidity between banks and financial institutions showed a marginal convergence feature of "decreasing volume and increasing price". The central bank's net withdrawal of 10.11 billion yuan in the open market and the expiration of treasury cash fixed - deposits led to marginal tightening of liquidity and an overall marginal increase in capital interest rates. As of Thursday, DR001 and DR007 increased by 1BP and 6BP respectively compared with the previous week. Although the expiration of treasury cash fixed - deposits and the central bank's slight tightening of funds in the OMO market, the capital price still fluctuated within a reasonable range, and the market liquidity was generally stable. The stable yield of 1 - year inter - bank certificates of deposit, as an anchor for bank liability costs, alleviated the upward pressure on short - term interest rates and provided a risk - free return anchor for banks' self - operated funds to allocate interest - rate bonds. The high spread between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds effectively reduced the short - term selling pressure [8].