Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-13 09:07Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market's fundamentals may be in a stage where supply is increasing and demand is stable, with the seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry showing a decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions with a light position at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6][7] Summary by Section 1. Weekly Highlights - Market Performance: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 0.73%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 100,310 yuan/ton [6] - Inflation Data: In the US, the seasonally adjusted CPI in February increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. In China, the CPI in February increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, and the core CPI increased by 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [6] - Fundamentals: The TC spot index of copper concentrates reached a new low again, and the expectation of tight mines still supported copper prices. The operating rate of smelters gradually recovered, and copper production might increase significantly month - on - month. Upstream holders held firm on prices. Although the copper price on the disk adjusted, the spot copper still maintained a relatively strong premium. Downstream buyers replenished inventory at low prices as the copper price adjusted, and consumption generally remained stable. Domestic copper inventory was still in the seasonal accumulation stage, but the accumulation slowed down due to the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season [6] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Futures Contract: As of March 13, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 205 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 290 yuan/ton. The main contract was priced at 100,310 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 740 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 190,853 lots, a month - on - month decrease of 4,829 lots [13] - Spot Price: As of March 13, 2026, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 100,515 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 890 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of the main contract was - 450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [16] - Premium and Position: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 44 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 US dollar/ton. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 83,483 lots, a decrease of 10,597 lots from last week [23] - Options Market: As of March 13, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money options contract of the Shanghai copper main contract was above the 75th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options positions was 0.73, a week - on - week decrease of 0.007 [29] 3. Industry Situation Upstream - Mining Quotes and Processing Fees: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate quote in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 90,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 240 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper this week was 2,100 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 200 yuan/ton [32] - Imports and Price Difference: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7043 million tons, an increase of 178,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 7.05% and a year - on - year growth rate of 7.24%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 4,448.18 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 710 yuan/ton [37] - Global Production and Inventory: As of November 2025, the global monthly production value of copper concentrates was 1,923 thousand tons, a decrease of 11 thousand tons from October, a decline of 0.57%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 78.8%, an increase of 1.9% from October. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 485,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29,000 tons [42] Supply Side - Refined Copper Production: As of December 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.326 million tons, an increase of 90,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 7.28% and a year - on - year growth rate of 6.76%. As of December 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,431 thousand tons, an increase of 70 thousand tons from November, a growth rate of 2.96%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 80.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from November [44] - Refined Copper Imports: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 298,027.317 tons, a decrease of 6,677.56 tons from November, a decline of 2.19% and a year - on - year decline of 27%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was 401.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 297.42 yuan/ton [51][52] - Social Inventory: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory increased by 28,025 tons week - on - week, the total COMEX inventory decreased by 5,695 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 425 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 577,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,300 tons [57] Downstream and Application - Copper Products: As of December 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2291 million tons, an increase of 3,100 tons from November, a growth rate of 0.14%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 440,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from November, a growth rate of 2.33% and a year - on - year decline of 21.43% [63] - Power Grid and Appliance: As of December 2025, the cumulative investment completion of power and grid increased by 5.11% and - 4.65% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs decreased by 4.4%, 9.6%, increased by 5.7%, 7%, and decreased by 1.2% year - on - year respectively [67] - Real Estate and Integrated Circuits: As of December 2025, the cumulative investment completion of real estate development was 827.8814 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2% and a month - on - month increase of 5.34%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 48,427,948.1 ten - thousand pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.14% [74] Overall Situation - Global Supply and Demand: According to ICSG statistics, as of December 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 173 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, as of December 2025, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was 98,000 tons [79][80]