瑞达期货甲醇市场周报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7] - The methanol market in ports fluctuated widely at a high level this week, and the price of inland methanol increased significantly. The market was mainly driven by geopolitical sentiment, and the futures sentiment gradually spread to the spot market. With positive factors such as continuous inventory reduction by enterprises, local olefin external procurement demand, and the gradual recovery of downstream demand, the price showed a sharp jump [8] - Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the output of recovered production capacity, resulting in a decrease in overall output. This week, inland enterprises and ports both reduced inventory. With the support of downstream demand along the Yangtze River, the pick - up was good, but the arrival of imported ships was less. With a significant reduction in supply, the domestic methanol inventory started the de - stocking channel. It is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to decline next week [8] - The start - up of the MTO industry decreased due to the short - term shutdown of the second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei. It is expected that the short - term industry start - up will remain stable [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Wait and see due to geopolitical uncertainties [7] - Market review: Port methanol prices fluctuated widely at high levels, and inland prices rose significantly. The market was driven by geopolitical sentiment, and futures sentiment spread to the spot market. Positive factors supported the price increase [8] - Market outlook: Domestic methanol production decreased, inventory decreased, and it is expected that port inventory may continue to decline next week. The MTO industry start - up is expected to remain stable [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: The main contract price of Zhengzhou methanol futures rose by 8.47% this week [11] - Inter - period spread: As of March 13, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 133 [16] - Position analysis: Not detailed in the provided content - Warehouse receipt: As of March 12, there were 10333 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 937 compared to last week [24] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of March 12, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area was 2810 yuan/ton, an increase of 280 yuan/ton compared to last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2212.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton compared to last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 597.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton compared to last week [30] - Foreign price: As of March 12, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 336 US dollars/ton, an increase of 27 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 159 US dollars/ton, an increase of 68 US dollars/ton compared to last week [35] - Basis: As of March 12, the basis of Zhengzhou methanol was + 84 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton compared to last week [39] 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal price: As of March 11, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 690 yuan/ton, the same as last week [43] - Natural gas price: As of March 12, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.25 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.07 US dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [43] 3.5 Industry Situation - Production and start - up rate: As of March 12, China's methanol production was 2013855 tons, a decrease of 3610 tons compared to last week; the device capacity utilization rate was 90.15%, a decrease of 0.18% month - on - month. Next week, the planned recovered production capacity is more than the maintenance and production - reduction capacity, which may lead to an increase in capacity utilization rate and production [46] - Inventory: As of March 11, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 52.31 tons, a decrease of 2.93 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.30%; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 26.53 tons, a decrease of 2.98 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.10%. The total port inventory was 131.28 tons, a decrease of 13.07 tons compared to the previous data. Both East and South China regions reduced inventory. The port inventory decreased significantly due to a large reduction in supply [51] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 173.40 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%; from January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 1440.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75%. As of March 12, the methanol import profit was - 2.24 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.5 yuan/ton compared to last week [56] 3.6 Downstream Situation - Start - up rate: As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin devices was 82.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. The start - up of the MTO industry decreased due to the short - term shutdown of the second - phase plant of Yanchang Yulin Zhongmei [59] - Profit: As of March 13, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 612 yuan/ton, an increase of 149 yuan/ton compared to last week [62]