碳酸锂市场周报：供给充足需求尚可，锂价或将震荡运行-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a stage of sufficient supply and fair demand, with prices likely to fluctuate. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions at low prices with a light position and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Summary - Market Performance: The main contract of lithium carbonate showed a weak and fluctuating trend on the weekly line, with a decline of 2.61%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 152,080 yuan/ton [7]. - Macroeconomic Indicators: In February, China's CPI increased by 1.3% year - on - year, the highest in nearly three years, and the core CPI increased by 1.8% year - on - year. The national PPI decreased by 0.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for three consecutive months [7]. - Raw Material Side: Lithium ore prices fluctuated with the high - level oscillation of lithium carbonate prices. Mines still had a strong sentiment of holding prices, and smelters were also quite active in purchasing and inquiring [7]. - Supply Side: Smelters' production resumption was basically completed, and the operating rate rebounded. Upstream and traders still had the sentiment of holding prices and being reluctant to sell, and there were some operations of releasing goods at high prices. The export from Chile decreased in February, and it was expected that the domestic import volume might slightly converge after the arrival of the shipping schedule, but the overall supply of domestic lithium carbonate remained sufficient [7]. - Demand Side: Downstream demand was cautious, mostly adopting the strategy of purchasing at low prices. The trading volume in the spot market was a bit light, and the overall industrial inventory decreased slightly. The demand had resilience, but its sustainability needed further observation [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: As of March 13, 2026, the closing price of the main lithium carbonate contract was 152,080 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4,080 yuan/ton. The near - far month spread of lithium carbonate was 4,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6,500 yuan/ton [13]. - Spot Price: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 159,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,750 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 6,920 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7,830 yuan/ton [19]. 3.3. Upstream Market - Lithium Spodumene: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6% - 6.5%) was 2,505 US dollars/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 6.8752, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36% [23]. - Lithium Mica: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone was 14,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2.0% - 3%) was 7,288 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 113 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4. Industry Conditions - Supply Side: As of December 2025, the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 23,988.66 tons, an increase of 1,933.47 tons from November, a growth rate of 8.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The monthly export volume was 911.898 tons, an increase of 152.66 tons from November, a growth rate of 20.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.97%. As of January 2026, the monthly output of lithium carbonate was 59,470 tons, an increase of 2,650 tons from December, a growth rate of 4.66%, and a year - on - year increase of 69.29%. The operating rate in that month was 43%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32% [33]. - Demand Side - Hexafluorophosphate Lithium: As of March 13, 2026, the average price of hexafluorophosphate lithium was 111,000 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. As of January 2026, the monthly output of electrolyte was 219,600 tons, a decrease of 13,550 tons from December, a decline of 5.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 50.76% [36]. - Lithium Iron Phosphate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 650 yuan/ton. As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials was 267,980 tons, an increase of 22,900 tons from January, a growth rate of 9.34%, and a year - on - year increase of 67.91%. The operating rate in that month was 55%, a month - on - month increase of 1% and a year - on - year decrease of 2% [40]. - Ternary Materials: As of February 2026, the monthly output of ternary materials was 53,590 tons, a decrease of 5,970 tons from January, a decline of 10.02%, and a year - on - year increase of 19.3%. The operating rate in that month was 45%, a month - on - month decrease of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 5%. As of the latest data this week, the prices of ternary materials 811 type, 622 type, and 523 type remained stable [45]. - Lithium Manganate: As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium manganate was 9,470 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from January, a decline of 2.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.61%. As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium manganate was 56,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 yuan/ton [50]. - Lithium Cobaltate: As of the latest data this week, the average price of lithium cobaltate was 400,500 yuan/ton, remaining flat week - on - week. As of February 2026, the monthly output of lithium cobaltate was 13,120 tons, a decrease of 2,510 tons from January, a decline of 16.06%, and a year - on - year increase of 108.59% [53]. - New Energy Vehicles: As of February 2026, the cumulative sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 41.18% of the cumulative sales of all vehicles (penetration rate), a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 0.87%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles was 694,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 33.33%; the sales volume was 765,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 19.05%. The cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles was 583,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 106.74% [57][60]. 3.5. Options Market - According to the option parity theory, the premium of the synthetic underlying asset is 0.55, presenting a positive arbitrage opportunity. Based on the performance of option at - the - money contracts and the fundamental situation, it is recommended to build a short straddle option to bet on increasing volatility [65].