瑞达期货宏观市场周报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices showed mixed performance this week, with the Shenzhen market generally outperforming the Shanghai market. The four stock index futures also showed differentiation, with only IF rising slightly. The market was greatly affected by overseas geopolitical news. Due to the continuous rise in oil prices caused by the US-Iran conflict, global equity assets faced significant callback pressure under the re-inflation expectation, and A-shares were also significantly affected. In addition, this week's domestic inflation and import and export data were released, showing a significant rebound in prices and external demand, and the positive macro fundamentals provided some support to the market. The trading activity in the market decreased slightly compared with last week [9][15]. - The inflation level in China in February exceeded expectations, and the continuous fermentation of the Iran situation strengthened the marginal expectation of imported inflation. The rhythm of the year-on-year return to positive of PPI in the future will accelerate, and the inflation factor will put pressure on the adjustment of the bond market. In addition, under the interbank deposit pricing self - regulatory mechanism, more than 10 trillion yuan of deposits may see an interest rate cut, which is expected to drive the interest rate center to decline. With the interweaving of long and short factors, interest rates will continue to fluctuate weakly in the short term [9]. - The energy and chemical products and oils rose under the cost support and linkage effect of the rising crude oil, while the non - ferrous metals and precious metals were weakened by the strengthening of the US dollar under the inflation expectation. Since the increase of crude oil and energy and chemical products was greater than that of metals, the commodity index is expected to remain in a relatively strong trend [9]. - The rebound of oil prices led to an increase in inflation concerns. The US dollar maintained a relatively strong operation under the support of risk - aversion sentiment and the strengthening of US bond yields. The euro was supported by the expectation of the European Central Bank's interest rate hike but was still suppressed by the strong US dollar environment; the Japanese yen was dragged down by policy differences and energy pressure and showed a weak overall performance [9][13]. - China's exports improved more than expected due to the Spring Festival dislocation and the better - than - expected recovery of external demand. In US dollar terms, China's exports from January to February increased by 21.8% year - on - year, far exceeding the Bloomberg expectation of 7.2%. It is expected that China's exports will still maintain a relatively high growth rate in 2026, but the year - on - year growth rate in March is expected to decline significantly due to the dislocation effect [14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions - Stock: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.19%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 0.18%. The A - share market was affected by overseas geopolitical news, and the trading activity decreased slightly. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [9]. - Bond: The 10 - year government bond yield rose 0.17%, with a weekly change of +0.30BP, and the main 10 - year government bond futures fell 0.28%. Due to inflation and other factors, the bond market is under adjustment pressure, but the interest rate may decline. The allocation suggestion is to operate within a range [9]. - Commodity: The Wind commodity index fell 2.06%, and the CSI commodity futures price index rose 2.92%. The commodity index is expected to be strong. The allocation suggestion is to buy on dips [9]. - Foreign Exchange: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.80%, and the euro against the US dollar 2603 contract fell 0.85%. The US dollar is strong in the short term, the euro is relatively resilient, and the yen is weak. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9][13]. 3.2 Important News and Events - Diplomatic: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated China's position on the US - Israel's unauthorized military action against Iran, emphasizing the respect for the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of Gulf Arab countries [17]. - Technology and Finance: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued suggestions on preventing the security risks of the "Lobster" open - source intelligent agent, and at least 20 securities firms issued internal compliance reminders [17]. - Legislation: In 2026, relevant laws will be formulated and revised in the fields of the socialist market economy and finance, and legislative research in the field of artificial intelligence will be strengthened [17]. - Stock Market Reform: The CSRC will deepen the reform of the Growth Enterprise Market, adding a more accurate and inclusive listing standard and promoting a series of measures [17]. - Geopolitical and Economic: Trump said the war with Iran would not end this week; the EU warned that the Iran conflict might push the inflation rate above 3% and affect economic growth; the IEA released 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves; the US proposed new regulations on AI chip exports [19]. 3.3 This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - China: In February, the CPI annual rate was 1.3% (expected 0.8%, previous value 0.2%), the PPI annual rate was - 0.9% (expected - 1.2%, previous value - 1.4%), the export annual rate in US dollars was 39.6%, and the import annual rate in US dollars was 13.8% [20]. - US: In February, the unadjusted CPI annual rate was 2.4% (expected 2.4%, previous value 2.4%), the unadjusted core CPI annual rate was 2.5% (expected 2.5%, previous value 2.5%), and the initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 were 2.13 million (expected 2.15 million, previous value 2.14 million) [20]. - Germany: In January, the seasonally - adjusted industrial output monthly rate was - 0.5% (expected 1%, previous value - 1%), the seasonally - adjusted trade balance was 21.2 billion euros (expected 15.7 billion euros, previous value 17.2 billion euros), and in February, the CPI monthly rate final value was 0.2% (expected 0.2%, previous value 0.2%) [20]. - France: In January, the trade balance was - 1.843 billion euros (previous value - 4.298 billion euros) [20]. 3.4 Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - March 16, 2026: At 21:15, the US February industrial output monthly rate (previous value 0.7%) [81]. - March 17, 2026: At 18:00, the eurozone March ZEW economic sentiment index (previous value 39.4%); at 22:00, the US February pending home sales index monthly rate (previous value - 0.8%) [81]. - March 18, 2026: At 18:00, the eurozone February CPI annual rate final value (previous value 1.9%); at 20:30, the US February PPI annual rate (previous value 2.9%) [81]. - March 19, 2026: At 00:00, the Japanese central bank target interest rate until March 19 (previous value 0.75%); at 02:00, the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision (upper limit) until March 18 (previous value 3.75%); at 15:00, the UK February unemployment rate (previous value 4.4%); at 20:00, the UK central bank interest rate decision until March 19 (previous value 3.75%); at 21:15, the eurozone European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate until March 19 (previous value 2%) [81]. - March 20, 2026: At 09:00, China's one - year loan prime rate until March 20 (previous value 3%); at 15:00, the German February PPI monthly rate (previous value - 0.6%) [81].