集运指数（欧线）期货周报-20260313

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2604 closed up 5.71%, and the far - month contracts rose between 9 - 17%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1545.46, up 82.06 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 5.6%. Geopolitical tensions, Trump's tariff war resurgence, and the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates in April forcing shipments and stockpiling in March supported the futures prices. The supply - demand pattern shifted from a slack off - season to a tight balance in the short term, strengthening the shipping companies' bargaining power. However, the geopolitical situation is unknown, the tariff war may change the balance again, and there are limitations to the price increase in March and April, so investors are advised to be cautious [6][7][39] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) rose collectively this week. The main contract EC2604 closed up 5.71%, and the far - month contracts rose between 9 - 17%. The SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1545.46, up 5.6% month - on - month. The EC2604 contract's trading volume was mainly volatile, and the open interest declined [6][9][14] 2. News Review and Analysis - Iran's Supreme Leader stated that Iran will not give up revenge, and the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister allowed some ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The US will launch trade investigations on 16 major trading partners, which may lead to new tariffs. The EU warned that high oil prices could impact inflation and economic growth. The IEA released 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, and the US will "slightly" cut its strategic oil reserves [17] 3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the European Line capacity fluctuated and rebounded. The BDI and BPI declined rapidly, and the freight rates fluctuated slightly. The charter price of Capesize ships dropped significantly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar widened [25][30][33] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) are supported by factors such as geopolitical deterioration, shrinking effective capacity, tariff wars, and pre - shipment stockpiling. The short - term supply - demand pattern has shifted to a tight balance, but the geopolitical situation is unknown, and the shipping companies' price increase may be difficult to implement. Investors are advised to be cautious, control risks, and track relevant data and events [7][40]