菜籽类市场周报：中东冲突继续发酵，菜系期价继续上涨-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Canola Oil: The Canola oil futures continued to rise this week. The 05 contract closed at 9,821 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton from last week. Canada's canola planting area is expected to increase by 1% in 2026, but the production is expected to decrease. The escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict has pushed up international oil prices and the demand for vegetable oil biodiesel. The anti - dumping final ruling on Canadian canola has been settled, which may increase the import volume and add supply pressure in the long - term, but the market has already priced it in. The canola oil futures prices are in high - level oscillation recently, with increased short - term volatility [7]. - Canola Meal: The canola meal futures rose significantly this week. The 05 contract closed at 2,591 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan/ton from last week. The market expects a breakthrough in Sino - US negotiations, and the soaring crude oil price due to the geopolitical situation has boosted the US soybean market. The cancellation of anti - discrimination tariffs on Canadian canola meal and the reduction of canola tariffs will increase the supply in the long - term. Currently, it is the off - season for aquaculture, and the demand for canola meal is mainly rigid. The market has already reacted to the policy adjustments in advance, and the overall impact is limited. The canola meal futures continued to rise, with large short - term fluctuations, and short - term trading is recommended [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Canola Oil: This week, the canola oil futures closed higher. The 05 contract closed at 9,821 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton from last week. The planting area and production of Canadian canola have certain changes, and the geopolitical conflict has affected the market. The anti - dumping ruling on Canadian canola may increase long - term supply, but the market impact is limited. The futures prices are in high - level oscillation [7]. - Canola Meal: The canola meal futures rose significantly this week. The 05 contract closed at 2,591 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan/ton from last week. The geopolitical situation and policy adjustments may increase long - term supply, but the market has already priced it in. The short - term fluctuations are large [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price and Position: This week, the canola oil futures oscillated and closed higher, with a total position of 244,392 lots, down 47,997 lots from last week. The canola meal futures rose significantly, with a total position of 600,522 lots, down 253,968 lots from last week [14]. - Top 20 Net Positions: This week, the top 20 net positions of canola oil futures were - 14,280, compared with - 5,937 last week, with an increase in net short positions. The top 20 net positions of canola meal futures were - 100,227, compared with - 172,981 last week, with a decrease in net short positions [20]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: The registered warehouse receipts of canola oil were 1,125 lots, and those of canola meal were 2,311 lots [26][27]. - Spot Price and Basis: The spot price of canola oil in Jiangsu was 10,540 yuan/ton, showing a recovery. The basis between the active contract of canola oil and the spot price in Jiangsu was + 719 yuan/ton. The price of canola meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,720 yuan/ton, with an obvious recovery. The basis between the spot price in Jiangsu and the active contract of canola meal was + 129 yuan/ton [33][39]. - Futures Inter - month Spread: The 5 - 9 spread of canola oil was + 118 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of canola meal was + 119 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period in recent years [45]. - Futures - Spot Ratio: The ratio of the 05 contract of canola oil and meal was 3.79, and the average spot price ratio was 3.7 [48]. - Price Spreads between Canola Oil and Other Oils: The 05 contract spread between canola oil and soybean oil was 1,131 yuan/ton, with a slight contraction this week. The 05 contract spread between canola oil and palm oil was 53 yuan/ton, with an obvious contraction this week [57]. - Price Spread between Soybean Meal and Canola Meal: The 05 contract spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 537 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and canola meal was 620 yuan/ton [64]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Rapeseed - Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Forecast: As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 171,000 tons, down 30,000 tons from last week. The estimated import volumes of rapeseed in March, April, and May 2026 were 160,000 tons, 230,000 tons, and 200,000 tons respectively [68]. - Supply - Side: Imported Pressing Profit: As of March 12, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 436 yuan/ton [72]. - Supply - Side: Oil Mill Pressing Volume: As of the 10th week of 2026, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 24,500 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 5.94% [76]. - Supply - Side: Monthly Import Volume: In December 2025, the total import volume of rapeseed was 55,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 90.79% and a month - on - month increase of 53,600 tons [80]. 3.3.2 Canola Oil - Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Volume Changes: As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil inventory was 290,800 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17%. In December 2025, the total import volume of canola oil was 219,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.89% and a month - on - month increase of 54,000 tons [84]. - Demand - Side: Edible Vegetable Oil Consumption and Production: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 525,400 tons, and the monthly retail sales of catering revenue were 573.8 billion yuan [88]. - Demand - Side: Weekly Contract Volume Changes: As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola oil contract volume was 136,900 tons, an increase of 77,100 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 128.74% [92]. 3.3.3 Canola Meal - Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory Changes: As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the domestic imported and pressed canola meal inventory was 15,000 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 130.77% [96]. - Supply - Side: Import Volume Changes: In December 2025, the total import volume of canola meal was 238,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.58% and a month - on - month increase of 23,500 tons [100]. - Demand - Side: Monthly Feed Production Comparison: As of December 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3,008,600 tons [104]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - The implied volatility of canola meal options was 33.92% as of March 13, up 11.68% from last week's 22.24%, and it was at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [107].