格林大华期货早盘提示：铜-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the copper sector in the non-ferrous metals industry is "Oscillating with a bearish bias" [1] Core View - The report analyzes the copper market, including price movements, important news, market logic, and provides an investment rating. The current copper market shows a bearish trend due to factors such as supply surplus, dollar strength, and inventory changes [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - The closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract CU2604 in the night session was 100,860 yuan/ton, a 0.44% decrease from the previous night session. The closing price of the second main contract CU2605 was 101,020 yuan/ton, a 0.49% decrease. As of 06:00 on March 13, 2026, the COMEX HGK26E was at 5.821 US dollars per pound (equivalent to 88,229 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.8752), a 1.5% decrease from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract CA03ME closed at 12,948.5 US dollars per ton (equivalent to 89,024 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.8752), a 0.77% decrease [1] Important News - From January to February 2026, the cumulative import of copper ore and copper concentrates increased by 4.9% year-on-year [1] - In February 2026, Chile's copper export revenue was 4.7 billion US dollars, a 16.3% year-on-year increase. The copper export volume was 169,600 tons, with 39,000 tons exported to China. The export volume of copper ore and copper concentrates was 1,169,500 tons, with 776,600 tons exported to China [1] - On March 3, 2026, Jiangxi Copper's wholly-owned subsidiary, Jiangxi Copper (Hong Kong) Investment Co., Ltd., won court approval for its cash offer to acquire SolGold plc at 28 pence per share [1] Market Logic - In 2025, the global refined copper supply had a surplus of 385,100 tons according to WBMS data and 380,000 tons according to ICSG data [1] - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March has been significantly reduced, and the strengthening of the US dollar will suppress copper prices [1] - Since August 2025, global visible inventories have been rising, doubling to nearly 1 million tons by mid-February, indicating that high copper prices are suppressing copper consumption [1] - The market is worried about the US imposing tariffs on refined copper in the future. LME copper inventories in Europe have decreased from nearly 70,000 tons in April 2025 to 13,600 tons, while COMEX copper inventories have increased from less than 100,000 short tons to around 600,000 short tons [1] Trading Strategy - No trading strategy is provided for now [1]