建筑材料行业：双碳政策强化建材供给逻辑，盈利有望底部改善

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [2] Core Viewpoints - The dual carbon policy is expected to strengthen the supply logic of the building materials industry, leading to potential improvements in profitability from historical lows [5][34] - The cement industry is a key focus for carbon reduction, with an estimated clinker production of approximately 1.1 billion tons in 2025, contributing to about 8% of national carbon emissions [34] - The glass industry is also under scrutiny, with significant carbon emissions expected to be managed through cleaner fuel transitions and potential inclusion in carbon markets by 2027 [34] Summary by Sections Transition from Energy Consumption Control to Carbon Emission Control - The transition from "energy consumption control" to "carbon emission control" is expected to enhance the effectiveness of carbon reduction efforts [19][20] - The 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans emphasize the importance of reducing carbon emissions, with a target of a 17% reduction in carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 2025 [23][26] Cement Industry - The dual carbon policy is anticipated to lead to continuous improvements in the supply side of the cement industry, with administrative measures expected to force non-compliant and inefficient production capacities out of the market [34] - The carbon market is set to include the cement industry by 2025, with a gradual tightening of carbon quotas expected post-2027, which will increase costs for less efficient producers [35][36] Glass Industry - The glass industry is currently undergoing transformations to phase out outdated production capacities through cleaner fuel initiatives, with expectations of stricter environmental policies in the future [34] - The glass sector is projected to be included in carbon market regulations by 2027, which will further drive the exit of inefficient production capacities [34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the dual carbon policy will enhance the supply-side logic of the building materials industry, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved profitability as supply conditions optimize [5][34] - Key companies to watch in the cement sector include Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and China National Building Material, while in the glass sector, focus on companies like Xinyi Glass and Fuyao Glass [5][34]