国信期货玉米周报：供需偏紧支撑，现货表现坚挺-20260313

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the past week, the corn spot market remained firm. The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing enterprises first increased and then decreased, while in Heilongjiang, it first decreased and then increased. The average daily number of trucks arriving since March was at a low level year - on - year, indicating low supply. The futures market fluctuated. The main C2605 contract faced strong resistance at the 2400 yuan level and closed at 2386 yuan, down 0.29%. The basis of Jinzhou Port for 05 increased by 37 to 4 yuan/ton. Domestically, the post - holiday corn sales rhythm was slow, with sales in North China and Northeast China trailing behind last year. Considering the increase in production this market year, there is relatively sufficient surplus grain at the grass - roots level. In terms of demand, the存栏 of pigs and poultry is high, resulting in strong feed demand. However, due to the deterioration of breeding profits, the later - stage capacity reduction may accelerate, and the feed demand outlook is pessimistic. Deep - processing profits are poor, the operating rate is low, and corn consumption has decreased significantly year - on - year. Regarding substitutes, wheat prices have risen significantly recently, the wheat - corn price difference has rebounded, the arrival of imported sorghum and barley has increased, and the price difference between imported sorghum/barley and corn has decreased, so the substitution may increase later, but the overall substitution degree is limited. In terms of inventory, the inventories of feed and deep - processing enterprises have decreased, and there is a certain demand for replenishment later. The inventory at the northern port has increased, but the absolute level is still not high. The corn inventory in Guangdong has decreased, the sorghum and barley inventory has increased, and the overall grain inventory has decreased slightly. Overall, the current social inventory is not high, and the supply is limited, so the market supply - demand tightness still exists. Later, attention should be paid to the import rhythm and the auction of policy - sourced grains. The operation should be treated with a fluctuating view [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Analysis and Outlook - Corn Futures Market Changes: The main C2605 contract faced strong resistance at the 2400 yuan level and closed at 2386 yuan, down 0.29% [7] - Corn Spot Market Changes: The corn spot market remained firm. The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing enterprises first increased and then decreased, while in Heilongjiang, it first decreased and then increased. The average daily number of trucks arriving since March was at a low level year - on - year [7] - Corn Spot Market: Regional Spread: Not provided in the report - Corn Sales Progress: Post - holiday domestic corn sales rhythm was slow, with sales in North China and Northeast China trailing behind last year. Considering the increase in production this market year, there is relatively sufficient surplus grain at the grass - roots level [7] - Corn Import: Not provided in the report - Feed and Aquaculture Demand: The存栏 of pigs and poultry is high, resulting in strong feed demand. However, due to the deterioration of breeding profits, the later - stage capacity reduction may accelerate, and the feed demand outlook is pessimistic [7] - Feed and Aquaculture Demand: Feed Production: Not provided in the report - Deep - processing Demand: Deep - processing profits are poor, the operating rate is low, and corn consumption has decreased significantly year - on - year [7] - Substitutes: Wheat prices have risen significantly recently, the wheat - corn price difference has rebounded, the arrival of imported sorghum and barley has increased, and the price difference between imported sorghum/barley and corn has decreased, so the substitution may increase later, but the overall substitution degree is limited [7] - Northern Port Corn Dynamics: The inventory at the northern port has increased due to increased collection and a price difference inversion for shipping to the south, but the absolute level is still not high [7] - Southern Port Corn Dynamics: The corn inventory in Guangdong has decreased [7] - Southern Port Grain Dynamics: The sorghum and barley inventory has increased, and the overall grain inventory has decreased slightly [7] 2. Domestic Corn Starch Market Dynamics - Corn Starch Futures: Not provided in the report - Corn Starch Spot: Not provided in the report - Corn - Starch Spread: Not provided in the report - Corn Starch Production and Inventory: Not provided in the report - Corn Starch Downstream Demand: Not provided in the report - Cassava Starch: Not provided in the report 3. International Corn Market Dynamics - US Corn Futures Market: Not provided in the report - US Corn Sowing and Growth Progress: Not provided in the report - US Corn Export Sales: Not provided in the report - Brazilian Corn Crop Progress: Not provided in the report