国信期货油脂周报：中东局势持续发酵，棕榈油领涨油脂-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - This week, international and domestic oil prices have risen significantly due to the continuous fermentation of the Middle - East situation, which has led to a sharp increase in international crude oil prices. The upward trend of international oil may continue in the short term, but there is a risk of high - level adjustment if the Middle - East situation eases. Domestic oils follow the international market, with high - level long - position profit - taking orders accumulating. Caution is advised when chasing high prices, and low - position long orders should be held cautiously [6][64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part 1: Oil Market Analysis 1. Oil Market Review - International oils rose significantly this week. The continuous fermentation of the Middle - East situation led to a sharp increase in international crude oil prices, reaching $119.48 per barrel on Monday. Biodiesel production has shown commercial profits, driving up the price of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil showed a significant catch - up trend. On Monday, domestic palm oil and rapeseed oil on the Dalian and Zhengzhou exchanges once hit the daily limit, and soybean oil hovered near the daily limit. Subsequently, prices continued to rise. Domestic palm oil had the largest increase, followed by rapeseed oil, and soybean oil's upward trend expanded on Friday [6] 2. Recent International Oil Information - Indonesia's B50 Policy: Indonesia is re - evaluating the previously shelved B50 biodiesel plan. The energy department is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in mid - year. Road tests for B50 biodiesel are accelerating, and vehicle road tests are expected to be completed by June [9] - India's Oil Purchase: As international soybean oil prices soar, Indian buyers choose to cancel purchase contracts for imported crude soybean oil to earn more profits. Palm oil is a cheaper alternative, and India may buy more palm oil in the future [10] - Malaysian Palm Oil Inventory: In February, Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased for the second consecutive month to a four - month low of 2.704 million tons, a 3.94% month - on - month decrease. Production decreased significantly to 1.285 million tons, a 18.55% month - on - month decrease. Exports were 1.128 million tons, a 22.48% month - on - month decrease. The increase in imports (76,300 tons, a 136% month - on - month increase) mitigated the decline in inventory [11] - March Outlook: Malaysia's palm oil inventory may continue to decline in March due to seasonal low production. The specific change depends on export performance. In the first ten days of March, exports increased significantly compared to the same period in February. The rise in crude oil prices and shipping costs may indirectly boost palm oil demand [12][14] - Other News: Some super - tankers are diverting to the Red Sea due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which has a negative impact on the crude oil market. Brazil and Thailand are promoting an increase in the proportion of biodiesel in diesel. Shipments of Indonesian palm oil may slow down, leading to inventory accumulation [13][14] 3. Southeast Asian Weather - Not provided in the content 4. Futures and Spot Price Trends of Three Major Vegetable Oils - The report presents the comparison charts of the futures and spot price trends of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, but no detailed analysis is provided in the text [22] 5. Analysis of Domestic and International Oil Price Spreads - The report presents the comparison charts of the domestic and international spot and futures price spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, but no detailed analysis is provided in the text [24] 6. Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the end of the 10th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.0463 million tons, a weekly increase of 22,700 tons, a 1.12% month - on - month increase, and an 8.26% year - on - year decrease. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.0108 million tons, a weekly decrease of 4,300 tons, a 0.42% month - on - month decrease, and a 1.98% year - on - year decrease; edible palm oil inventory was 744,700 tons, a weekly increase of 30,400 tons, a 4.26% month - on - month increase, and a 94.69% year - on - year increase; rapeseed oil inventory was 290,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 3,500 tons, a 1.19% month - on - month decrease, and a 64.40% year - on - year decrease [32] 7. Analysis of Oil Basis - The report presents the regional basis and basis structure charts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil, but no detailed analysis is provided in the text [37][40][43] 8. Futures Price Spread Relationship between Oils - This week, the overall trend of oils is palm oil > rapeseed oil > soybean oil. The price spread between soybean oil and palm oil continued to decline [48] 9. Inter - monthly Spread Arbitrage Relationship of Oils - This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil and palm oil rebounded slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil continued to rebound [51] Part 2: Market Outlook for the Future 1. Seasonal Analysis - The report presents the seasonal index charts of domestic and international soybean oil, Malaysian palm oil, domestic palm oil, and domestic rapeseed oil, but no detailed analysis is provided in the text [55][57][60] 2. Market Outlook for Next Week - Technical Aspect: For the main contracts, the short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean oil and palm oil are bullish. The short - term and medium - term indicators of rapeseed oil are bullish, while the long - term indicators are intertwined [63] - Fundamental Aspect: In the international market, the rise in international crude oil prices caused by the Middle - East situation is still the key factor affecting oils. The upward trend of international oils may continue in the short term. In the US soybean oil market, attention should be paid to the release of the US biodiesel ROV blending policy. For Malaysian palm oil, attention should be paid to exports, production, and Indonesia's biodiesel policy. In the domestic market, oils follow the international market, but there is a risk of high - level adjustment if funds leave the market [64]