蛋白粕周报：美豆震荡走高，连粕大幅上行-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term bullish trend of the domestic rapeseed meal market continues, but as this round of price increase is mainly driven by event shocks, once the events ease, a large number of long - position profit - taking orders may emerge. Investors should be vigilant about the risk of high - level liquidation and be cautious when chasing high prices. Low - position long orders can be held with caution [6][81]. - In the international market, the focus next week will be on the new round of Sino - US consultations and the development of the Middle East situation. The continuous rise in international crude oil prices has led to an increase in US soybean oil prices, which in turn supports the upward movement of US soybeans. The market is also paying attention to new changes in US soybean exports. In the short term, CBOT soybeans will operate strongly above 1200 cents per bushel [81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis - Market Trends: This week, CBOT soybeans fluctuated upwards, with the main contract above 1200 cents per bushel. The continuous rise in international crude oil prices drove up the price of US soybeans. The USDA report was neutral, with an increase in US soybean crushing offset by an increase in imports, and the inventory remained at 350 million bushels. Affected by this, the main contract of Dalian rapeseed meal rose significantly. The domestic rapeseed meal spot price continued to rise, and the near - month basis was firm [6]. - US Market - US Soybean Exports: The US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 24% compared with the previous week but increased by about 3% compared with the same period last year. As of March 5, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 879,190 tons. The total US soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season reached 27,086,903 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.6%. The US soybean exports to China (Mainland) in the week ending March 5, 2026, were 411,462 tons [11]. - South American Market - Brazil and Argentina: In Brazil, as of March 5, 2026, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 51%. In Argentina, recent rainfall has provided much - needed moisture for corn and soybeans in many central and northern production areas, but drought - affected areas still face crop stress, and the sunflower harvest progress has reached 39% [22][23][30]. - Domestic and International Oilseed Markets: Analysts expect the 2025/26 US soybean ending inventory to be lowered to 343 million bushels. The average global soybean ending inventory forecast is 125 million tons. In 2026, from January to February, China's soybean imports were 12.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. It is expected that China's soybean imports will increase significantly in the next few months [30][31]. - Soybean - South American Soybean Sowing and Harvest Progress: As of March 7, 2026, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 50.6%. In Argentina, the overall soybean sowing progress was close to completion [31][36][38]. - Soybean - Port Inventory and Crushing Profit: This week, the crush margin of Brazilian soybeans on the futures market continued to recover. As of the end of this week, the total inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports was about 8.3357 million tons, and the theoretical crushable days of port - imported soybeans were 28 days [44]. - Soybean - Import Cost and Domestic - Foreign Price Difference: The cost of US Gulf soybeans arriving in May (with additional tariffs) is 4716 yuan/ton, and the cost of Brazilian soybeans arriving in May is 3940 yuan/ton. This week, the Brazilian soybean premium stopped falling and rebounded [47]. - Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Processing Rate and Crush Volume: As of the end of the 10th week (March 7, 2026), the processing rate of imported rapeseed at domestic main oil mills increased compared with the previous week, but it was still at a nearly stagnant level. The domestic rapeseed processing volume was 24,500 tons this week [60]. - Rapeseed Meal - Basis Analysis: This week, the domestic rapeseed meal spot price rose, and the rapeseed meal basis stopped falling and rebounded [58]. - Oilseed and Oil Product Inter - Variety Arbitrage Relationship: This week, the oil - meal ratio of soybeans fell from a high level, the oil - meal ratio of rapeseed main contracts fell slightly, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal main contracts widened slightly [67]. - Protein Meal Inter - Month Spread Arbitrage Relationship: This week, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal rebounded significantly [72]. 3.2 Future Market Outlook - Seasonal Analysis: There are seasonal index charts for US soybeans, US rapeseed meal, Dalian rapeseed meal, and live pigs, but no specific analysis content is provided [75][76][78]. - Next Week's Market Outlook: Technically, the short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bullish, while the long - term indicators are intertwined. Fundamentally, in the international market, the focus will be on Sino - US consultations and the Middle East situation. In the domestic market, due to the Middle East situation and Brazilian soybean quality inspection issues, the arrival of imported soybeans in April may be lower than expected, and the supply of rapeseed meal may decrease, which will boost the rapeseed meal market [80][81].