今日早评-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of various futures are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical conflicts, and macro - economic expectations, showing different trends including short - term shocks, upward or downward movements [1][3][7] - For different varieties, corresponding trading strategies are proposed, such as going long on dips, short - term long trading, etc. [1][4][7] Summary by Variety Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The IEA has adjusted supply and demand forecasts, with a significant drop in March supply. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a sharp rise in oil prices. The release of strategic reserves has limited ability to suppress price increases. It is recommended to go long on dips, focusing on the war situation [7] - Methanol: High domestic methanol production, significant reduction in port inventory, and good downstream demand. The market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [13] - Ethylene glycol: Inventory in the East China main port is decreasing, supply has decreased, and downstream demand has increased. The price increase is driven by oil prices, and it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [16] - Synthetic rubber: Affected by the Middle East military conflict, the supply of raw materials is tight. It is recommended to go long at the current low level [8] Metals - Iron ore: In March, supply and demand are both strong. The constraints on ore prices from high supply and high inventory may be alleviated. It may maintain high - level shocks in the short term and is bearish in the medium - to - long term [3] - Steel rebar: The supply and demand in the steel market are rising, and the inventory growth rate is slowing. Steel prices may be slightly stronger in the short term [3] - Copper: Domestic refined copper supply is strong. High copper prices suppress procurement, and social inventory is high. It is expected to remain in a shock pattern in the short term [9] - Aluminum: The suspension plan of Middle - Eastern aluminum plants has been postponed. Geopolitical risks dominate the market sentiment. Aluminum prices have upward momentum in the short term but need to beware of volatility [10] - Nickel: Supply is expected to increase in March, demand has not fully recovered, and nickel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [12] Agricultural Products - Soybean meal: Supported by high - priced US soybeans and increased import costs, but the rise is restricted by sufficient downstream inventory. It is recommended to go long at low prices and be cautious about chasing highs [4] - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil exports have increased significantly. Crude oil provides cost support, but domestic inventory pressure is high. It is expected to be in high - level shocks in the short term, and short - term long trading is recommended [4] - Live pigs: The pig price is in low - level shocks in the short term, and the downward space for futures prices is limited in the medium - to - long term [5] Others - Ten - year treasury bonds: The expected reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates is beneficial to the bond market. The bond market may continue to fluctuate in a triangle, waiting for the guidance of the Politburo meeting in April [11] - Gold: Due to the continuous Middle - East war and rising oil prices, the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cuts has decreased. Gold has limited downward space in the short term and is expected to be in high - level shocks in the medium term [11] - Platinum: The Fed's consideration of relaxing bank regulations has increased the downward pressure on platinum in the medium - term [12] - Glass: The start - up of float glass enterprises is relatively stable, with poor profits and high inventory. The terminal real - estate demand is declining, and it is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [15] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal: The resumption of coal mines is restricted, and there is pressure on the fundamentals due to high Mongolian coal imports. The futures price is affected by macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts, and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [1] Polyester - Polyester bottle chips: The production of polyester bottle chips and the polyester industry has increased. The decline in Asian PX operating rate and the rise of crude oil drive up the price of bottle chips. It is recommended to go long on dips [1]