原油周度报告-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the crude oil market fluctuated violently. Geopolitics was the core influencing factor. The geopolitical risk premium rapidly declined, the IEA's release of strategic oil reserves was expected to suppress the market, and the interruption of the Strait of Hormuz provided support for the market. The future geopolitical situation remains unclear, and the risk of continued conflict is high. The IEA's release of strategic oil reserves may affect market sentiment, but it is difficult to reverse the oil price trend under the continuous interruption of the Strait of Hormuz. Whether the Strait of Hormuz can be effectively navigable is still the key factor affecting the oil price trend. If the interruption continues, the pricing model of the market is expected to shift from "risk premium" to "supply gap", and the oil price center is expected to move up further. If the Strait of Hormuz is conditionally navigable under the mediation of international diplomatic forces, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil price is expected to decline. Short - term fluctuations intensify, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [8][55] Summary by Directory Report Summary - Market focus: The interruption of the Strait of Hormuz continues, Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries collectively cut production, and the IEA releases 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves [7] - Key data: From the week ending March 6, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 3.824 million barrels, the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.117 million barrels, and the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.001 million barrels [7] - Main view: The crude oil market fluctuated violently this week. Geopolitics was the core influencing factor. The future geopolitical situation is unclear, and the oil price trend depends on the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz. Short - term fluctuations intensify, and it is recommended to participate cautiously [8] Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors: Interruption of the Strait of Hormuz, continuation of geopolitical conflicts [11] - Bearish factors: IEA's release of strategic oil reserves, temporary exemption of Russian oil sanctions by the US [11] Macroeconomic Analysis - Cease - fire prospects: The cease - fire prospects are slim, but the intensity and scale may decline. Trump made contradictory statements, Iran put forward cease - fire conditions, and the new supreme leader of Iran stated that he would not give up revenge and the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed [13][14] - Strait of Hormuz: The navigation of the Strait of Hormuz has been interrupted. Iran has made multiple statements on the control of the strait, and the interruption is expected to continue until the two sides achieve a complete cease - fire [16][17] - Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries' production cuts: As of March 10, the total production cuts of four Gulf countries reached 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 6% - 7% of the global oil supply. If the interruption of the strait continues, the production cuts may expand [18] - IEA's release of strategic oil reserves: The IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the largest scale in history. The impact on the crude oil market depends on the release speed. The US temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil [19] Data Analysis - Supply side: US crude oil production decreased slightly, and the number of oil drilling rigs increased slightly but is expected to remain at a low level [20][23] - Demand: The operating rate of US refineries is in a seasonal recovery cycle, the operating rate of 16 European refineries is expected to recover, the operating rate of Chinese refineries has declined, and domestic refineries may face the pressure of reducing production [26][30][36] - Profit: The profits of domestic refineries have increased rapidly [42] - Inventory: EIA commercial crude oil inventory and Cushing area inventory increased, and gasoline inventory decreased. Crude oil production remaining high may lead to inventory accumulation [47][51] - Crack spread: The US crude oil crack spread has rebounded significantly [52] Future Outlook - The future geopolitical situation is unclear, and the risk of continued conflict is high. The IEA's release of strategic oil reserves is difficult to reverse the oil price trend. The navigation of the Strait of Hormuz is the key factor affecting the oil price. If the interruption continues, the oil price center is expected to move up further; if it is conditionally navigable, the geopolitical risk premium in the oil price is expected to decline [55]