铜产业链周度报告-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report The copper price is under short - term pressure. Investors should be vigilant about further downward pressure, and it is necessary to wait for the Middle East situation to become clearer and domestic demand to return [56]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Report Summary - US non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000 in February 2026, the second single - month negative growth since 2020. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the average hourly wage increased by 3.8% year - on - year, indicating labor cost pressure [14]. - The adjusted CPI in February increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year, all in line with market expectations. However, the data did not reflect the impact of the oil price surge caused by the Iran situation [14]. - The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has led to a more than 42% increase in Brent crude oil prices, which has increased inflation concerns, potentially delaying the Fed's interest rate cut and suppressing copper prices. The strong US dollar also puts pressure on copper prices [10]. - Domestically, inflation has warmed up in February. Fiscal and monetary policies are working together to stabilize growth. The government has implemented a series of measures such as increasing fiscal expenditure, issuing government bonds, and promoting consumption [16]. - The supply of overseas copper mines is growing slowly, and the expansion of refined copper production capacity is limited. The TC of copper concentrates has been in a negative range, hitting a record low [23]. - In January 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production remained at a high level. In February, production decreased slightly due to the Spring Festival, but still increased year - on - year. In March, production is expected to resume growth [27]. - In December 2025, China's scrap copper imports increased, reaching a new monthly high for the year [31]. - In February 2026, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was lower than expected. High copper prices have suppressed demand, but the operating rate is expected to recover in March [35]. - The spread between refined copper and scrap copper is still at a high level, which is not conducive to the consumption of refined copper [39]. - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and repair. Although the overall market has not completely emerged from the decline, there are positive signals in the demand and circulation ends [44]. - In January 2026, the automobile industry started steadily. The passenger car market declined, the commercial vehicle market continued to improve, the new energy vehicle market was stable, and automobile exports continued to grow. The power production of large - scale industries also maintained growth [46]. - Global copper inventories are showing a differentiated trend. LME copper inventories continue to accumulate, while domestic inventories have begun to decline [49]. - The domestic copper spot has changed from a discount to a premium, while the overseas discount has widened [53]. 2. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish Factors: The tight situation of copper mines remains unchanged, and domestic inventories have begun to decline [8]. - Bearish Factors: Refined copper production remains at a high level, the strong US dollar puts pressure on copper, and the rise in international oil prices suppresses the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. 3. Data Analysis - Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors - The Middle East geopolitical conflict has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, increasing inflation concerns and delaying the Fed's interest rate cut. The strong US dollar also suppresses copper prices [10]. - US non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased, and inflation is moderate but still has hidden concerns. The timing of the Fed's interest rate cut still needs further observation [14]. - Domestically, inflation has warmed up in February, and fiscal and monetary policies are working together to stabilize growth [16]. - Supply - side Factors - Global copper mine capital expenditure has been lacking for a long time, exploration results have declined significantly, and future supply growth is difficult to release [19]. - The supply of overseas copper mines is growing slowly, and the TC of copper concentrates has been in a negative range, hitting a record low [23]. - In January 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production remained at a high level. In February, production decreased slightly due to the Spring Festival, but still increased year - on - year. In March, production is expected to resume growth [27]. - In December 2025, China's scrap copper imports increased, reaching a new monthly high for the year [31]. - Demand - side Factors - In February 2026, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was lower than expected. High copper prices have suppressed demand, but the operating rate is expected to recover in March [35]. - The spread between refined copper and scrap copper is still at a high level, which is not conducive to the consumption of refined copper [39]. - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and repair. Although the overall market has not completely emerged from the decline, there are positive signals in the demand and circulation ends [44]. - In January 2026, the automobile industry started steadily. The passenger car market declined, the commercial vehicle market continued to improve, the new energy vehicle market was stable, and automobile exports continued to grow. The power production of large - scale industries also maintained growth [46]. - Inventory and Price Factors - Global copper inventories are showing a differentiated trend. LME copper inventories continue to accumulate, while domestic inventories have begun to decline [49]. - The domestic copper spot has changed from a discount to a premium, while the overseas discount has widened [53]. 4. Future Market Judgment The copper price is under short - term pressure. Investors should be vigilant about further downward pressure, and it is necessary to wait for the Middle East situation to become clearer and domestic demand to return [56].