焦煤焦炭周度报告-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Energy price fluctuations affected the futures amplitude, and the fundamentals limited price elasticity. The coking coal fundamentals showed a "double - increase in supply and demand" situation with no prominent contradictions. The coking coal futures had support at the bottom due to energy premium, but demand boost was limited, so the futures would mainly move in a volatile manner. The coke fundamentals showed stable overall production. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production declined, and coke demand decreased accordingly. After the Two Sessions, pig iron production would gradually increase, driving up demand. The new round of coke price cut was implemented last Friday, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises and slightly improving the profitability of steel mills. Recently, as coking coal prices rose, the cost - side support for coke became stronger, and the futures followed the coking coal fluctuations [6][31][34] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - The double - coking futures maintained a volatile and slightly stronger trend this week. Energy price fluctuations affected the futures amplitude, and the fundamentals limited price elasticity. The coking coal supply was slightly loose, with stable inventory structure. Independent coking enterprises slightly replenished coking coal, and steel mills replenished raw material inventory. Coke production was stable. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production and coke consumption declined. The new round of coke price cut was implemented, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises [6] 3.2 Market Focus - Events: From January 20th to 26th, 2026, the Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration found major accident hidden dangers in Huixian Longtian Coal Industry Co., Ltd. and ordered it to suspend production for rectification for 2 days. During the 2026 Two Sessions, many NPC deputies and CPPCC members put forward suggestions on the coal industry, focusing on carbon reduction, pollution control, and ecological environmental protection. Due to the intensification of the conflict in the Middle East, LNG supply tightened, and India might rely more on coal - fired power generation this summer. The Canadian Coal Association emphasized the strategic importance of metallurgical coal [7] - Main Views: Coking coal supply was slightly loose, inventory structure was stable, independent coking enterprises slightly replenished coking coal, steel mills replenished raw material inventory, coke production of independent coking enterprises and steel mills was stable, pig iron production and coke consumption declined, and the new round of coke price cut was implemented, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises [7] 3.3 Multi - Empty Focus - Bullish Factors: Coking coal inventory was stable, and the inventory accumulation pressure improved compared with the same period last year. Geopolitical conflicts stimulated oil prices to rise, and coal in the same energy sector had a premium. Downstream enterprises slightly replenished inventory [10] - Bearish Factors: Mongolian coal customs clearance was at a high level, and the supply side was slightly loose. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production declined [10] 3.4 Data Analysis - Coking Coal Supply: As of the week of March 13th, the operating rate of 523 sample mines was 87.16%, a week - on - week increase of 4.84%, and the daily average output increased by 2.92 tons to 77.7 tons. The operating rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 31%, a week - on - week increase of 4.43%, and the daily average output increased by 3.18 tons to 23.08 tons. Since March, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port has gradually recovered to the pre - holiday high level. The domestic mine enterprises have fully resumed work, and the operating rate has recovered to a relatively high level compared with the same period last year. The capacity of coal washing plants is recovering slowly [12] - Coking Coal Inventory: As of the week of March 13th, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 277.68 tons, a decrease of 8.58 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants was 313.6 tons, an increase of 25.07 tons; the coking coal inventory at ports was 267.55 tons, a decrease of 0.15 tons. This week, the mine enterprise inventory decreased, the coal washing plant inventory increased, the overall inventory was stable, and the inventory accumulation pressure improved compared with last year [14] - Independent Coking Enterprises' Coking Coal Replenishment: As of March 13th, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 969.43 tons, an increase of 19.98 tons. The available inventory days were 11.41 days, an increase of 0.24 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 100.43 tons, a decrease of 9.87 tons. The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises decreased slightly, and the raw material coking coal changed from previous inventory reduction to slight replenishment [17] - Steel Mills' Raw Material Inventory Replenishment: As of March 13th, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 777.63 tons, an increase of 1.99 tons. The available inventory days were 12.44 days, an increase of 0.03 days compared with the previous period. The coke inventory was 687.55 tons, an increase of 16.29 tons compared with the previous period, and the available days were 13.17 days, an increase of 0.64 days compared with the previous period. Steel mills replenished raw material inventory [21] - Coke Production of Independent Coking Enterprises and Steel Mills: As of March 13th, the capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 73.91%, a decrease of 0.04% compared with the previous period, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke was 63.9 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons compared with the previous period; the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.89%, and the daily average output of coke was 47 tons, the same as the previous period. This week, the overall coke production was stable [23] - Pig Iron Production and Coke Consumption: As of the week of March 13th, China's coke consumption was 99.54 tons, a decrease of 2.88 tons. From the data of 247 steel enterprises, the daily average pig iron output was 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.39 tons. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production declined, and coke demand decreased accordingly [25] - Coke Price Cut and Profit Situation: As of March 13th, the average loss per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was 3 yuan/ton, changing from profit to loss. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 41.13%, an increase of 3.03% compared with the previous period. The new round of coke price cut was implemented last Friday, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises and slightly improving the profitability of steel mills [27] - Double - Coking Futures - Spot Basis Structure: The double - coking futures moved in a volatile and slightly stronger manner [29] 3.5 Market Outlook - Coking Coal: The domestic mine enterprises have fully resumed work, and the operating rate has recovered to a relatively high level compared with the same period last year. The capacity of coal washing plants is recovering slowly, and the supply side is slightly loose. This week, the mine enterprise inventory decreased, the coal washing plant inventory increased, the overall inventory was stable, and the inventory accumulation pressure improved compared with last year. Independent coking enterprises slightly reduced their coke inventory, and the raw material coking coal changed from previous inventory reduction to slight replenishment. Steel mills also replenished raw material inventory. Overall, the coking coal fundamentals showed a "double - increase in supply and demand" situation with no prominent contradictions. With the Middle East conflict not over, energy prices fluctuated at a high level. Driven by energy premium, there was support at the bottom of the coking coal futures, but demand boost was limited, so the futures would mainly move in a volatile manner [31] - Coke: The overall coke production was stable. During the Two Sessions, pig iron production declined, and coke demand decreased accordingly. After the Two Sessions, pig iron production would gradually increase, driving up demand. The new round of coke price cut was implemented last Friday, squeezing the profits of independent coking enterprises and slightly improving the profitability of steel mills. Recently, as coking coal prices rose, the cost - side support for coke became stronger, and the futures followed the coking coal fluctuations [34]