沥青周度报告-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the asphalt market experienced significant fluctuations, mainly due to the bidirectional volatility of crude oil influenced by geopolitical factors. The price fluctuations of asphalt are mainly affected by oil price transmission and market sentiment, while the fundamental factors have relatively limited impact on the asphalt market [8][58]. - The core factor influencing oil prices is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. As there are significant differences between the US and Iran regarding a cease - fire, the conflict may continue, making short - term navigation in the Strait of Hormuz difficult. Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries face the risk of an expanded production cut, which may further raise the oil price center [8][58]. - The IEA's release of the largest - ever strategic oil reserves may cool market sentiment in the short term. Attention should be paid to the release speed. If the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and the oil supply gap continues to widen, the release of oil reserves may not change the oil price trend [8][58]. - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary - Market Focus: The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries have collectively cut production, and the IEA has released 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves [7]. - Key Data: As of March 11, the operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 20%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous statistical period. As of March 13, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 410,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week. The factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 786,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 1.179 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Focus - Bullish Factors: The continued interruption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the decline in supply [12]. - Bearish Factors: The IEA's release of oil reserves [12]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - Cease - fire Outlook: The prospect of a cease - fire is dim, but the intensity and scale may decrease. The US has not achieved its pre - war goals and is under pressure from domestic politics, energy market turmoil, and Iran's tough stance. Iran is gradually gaining an advantage and may seek greater interests by controlling the Strait of Hormuz [14][15]. - Strait of Hormuz Navigation: Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has been interrupted. Iran has strengthened its control over the strait, and its new leadership is expected to continue its tough policy. It is expected that the navigation interruption will continue until a complete cease - fire is reached between the two sides [17][18]. - Middle - Eastern Oil - producing Countries' Production Cuts: As of March 10, the combined production cut of the four Gulf countries reached 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 6% - 7% of the global oil supply. If the strait remains blocked, the production cut scale may expand [19]. - IEA's Release of Strategic Oil Reserves: The IEA announced on the 11th that it will provide 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves. The impact on the crude oil market depends on the release speed. The US has temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian oil [20]. 3.4 Supply - and - Demand Analysis - Supply: As of March 13, the weekly domestic asphalt production was 410,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 20% as of March 11, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from the previous statistical period. Due to the blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, raw material shortages may keep the refinery operating rate at a low level [21][28]. - Demand: As of March 13, the weekly domestic asphalt shipment volume was 287,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the previous statistical period but a decrease of 2,000 tons year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of domestic modified asphalt was 0.73% as of March 13, an increase of 0.59 percentage points from the previous week. It is expected to remain at a low level in the near future [31][34]. - Inventory: As of March 13, the factory inventory of domestic asphalt sample enterprises was 786,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory was 1.179 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous week [40][47]. - Price Difference: As of March 13, the weekly profit of domestic asphalt processing and dilution was - 335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 178 yuan/ton from the previous week. As of March 12, the domestic asphalt basis was 60 yuan/ton. As of March 11, the asphalt - to - crude oil ratio was 43.5. The cracking spread decreased month - on - month, and the basis strengthened significantly [56]. 3.5 Future Market Judgment - The fundamental factors of asphalt have relatively limited impact on the market. Price fluctuations are mainly affected by oil price transmission and market sentiment. The core factor influencing oil prices is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz. The conflict may continue, and the oil price center may rise further. The IEA's release of oil reserves may cool market sentiment in the short term, but if the strait remains blocked, it may not change the oil price trend [58].