浮法玻璃周报：分析师范阿骄-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures market shows a short - term volatile pattern, seeking support around the cost price. The core contradiction lies between the "weak reality" (high inventory, weak demand) and the "strong expectation" (cost support, policy - driven production cuts). The market is in a triple tug - of - war of cost support, high inventory suppression, and capital game. The current valuation is relatively low, but the upside is limited by weak actual demand. Investors should closely monitor changes in supply and demand [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Futures Market: This week, the glass futures price showed a volatile trend of first falling and then rising. The market is seeking a balance between fundamental pressure and policy expectation support. It is characterized by short - term emotional drive, with the features of rising and then falling and wide - range fluctuations. The futures show an obvious forward premium structure, and the basis between futures and spot deepens, indicating high pressure in the spot market but relatively optimistic long - term expectations in the futures market [4]. - Spot Market: The spot market presents a typical contradiction of "weak reality and strong expectation". After the holiday, orders are generally scattered, and there are still problems with payment collection. The resumption of work in downstream deep - processing enterprises is slow, and large - scale procurement has not started [4]. 3.2. Supply - Side Situation - The daily output of national float glass this week was 146,900 tons, a decrease of 10,800 tons compared with the previous week. The operating rate of the float glass industry was 71.09%, a decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous week. Some production lines are undergoing capacity adjustments, with both line shutdowns (such as Wuhai Zhongbo Line 1, Hebei Zhengda Line 2) and startups (Shahe Anquan New Line 6) [4]. 3.3. Demand - Side Situation - The demand is in a recovery state. The operating rate of LOW - E glass sample enterprises was 43.7%, an increase of 14.4% compared with the previous week. In the North China region, the overall shipment has improved compared with the previous period, and the inventory has decreased. In the Shahe area, driven by market sentiment, middle - stream ordering and downstream replenishment have led to a high production - sales rate of enterprises. In the Central China market, downstream enterprises have gradually resumed work, and with the drive of sentiment, the overall production - sales rate of original glass enterprises has exceeded 100%, and the inventory pressure has been alleviated [4]. 3.4. Inventory Situation - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 75.849 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.788 million heavy boxes compared with the previous week, a decrease of 4.76% compared with the previous week, and an increase of 7.96% compared with the same period last year [4]. 3.5. Cost - Profit Situation - This week, the average weekly profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 106.69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the average weekly profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 39.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.09 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; the average weekly profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 7.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.29 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [4]. 3.6. Policy and External Factors - Under the influence of the Middle East conflict, energy costs have increased, and energy supply has been disrupted. Coupled with the expected production cuts driven by policies, it provides certain support for glass prices. With the advancement of the "15th Five - Year" green transformation plan, the glass industry is facing structural adjustment. Leading enterprises such as Nanbo A's layout in the fields of energy - saving glass and the photovoltaic industry chain may reshape the industry pattern. The policies may lead to clear production - cut measures in the glass industry, but the implementation time is not clear [4].