海外利率与大类资产配置周报：全球滞胀历史复盘：持现金等待机会-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - If stagflation arrives, the recommended asset allocation is to hold cash and gold, and wait for opportunities to invest in stocks and bonds. Stocks may decline due to rising costs and recession expectations, while US bonds' yield growth may slow down in the later stage. Commodities may first rise and then fall, with gold being relatively stable. The US dollar index may perform strongly [2][8][15]. - Historically, global stagflation often accompanies high oil prices. Once stagflation forms, stock and bond prices may decline due to rising prices and tight monetary policies. However, the decline this time may be less severe [11][15][28]. - The pricing logic of gold has changed in recent years. New demands from global order changes and government debt over - issuance determine the gold price, so the impact of interest rate hikes on gold is limited [11][30]. - The US dollar may perform well, benefiting from cash - holding demand, interest rate hikes, and rising oil prices [11][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Stagflation History Review - Relationship between Oil Prices and Stagflation: Historically, high and long - term oil prices often lead to global stagflation. For example, after the Fourth Middle East War, the Iran - Iraq War, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, stagflation occurred. During the Fourth Middle East War, the oil price rose from $2.7 per barrel before the war to $13 per barrel in early 1974; during the Iran - Iraq War, the oil price rose from $33.6 per barrel before the war to $40 per barrel within two months; during the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the oil price rose from over $80 per barrel before the war to over $120 per barrel in June 2022 [11][17][20]. - Asset Performance after Stagflation: - Fourth Middle East War: Global stocks and bonds fell, while commodities were strong. The US federal funds rate rose, leading to a global economic slowdown. Stocks generally declined, long - term bond yields rose, and most commodities increased, except for copper which declined significantly after the economic slowdown. The US dollar index benefited from rising interest rates [20]. - Iran - Iraq War: Stocks, bonds, and commodities were all affected, while the US dollar index was outstanding. Stocks had already declined significantly before the war, so the decline this time was less severe. High inflation dragged down the bond market, and commodity prices fell due to economic recession and high interest rates. The new international monetary system made the gold price worse, while the US dollar index rose [22][23]. - Russia - Ukraine Conflict: Stocks, bonds, and commodities were all damaged, while the US dollar performed well. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control inflation, causing stocks to decline again. The bond markets in Europe and the US declined, while the Chinese bond market benefited from loose policies. Commodities generally fell, with gold rising first and then falling, and industrial metals declining due to recession expectations. Only the US dollar index benefited from interest rate hikes [25]. Global Asset Performance - Overview: In the latest week (March 2 - 8), crude oil was the only asset that performed well, driving soybean meal to rise slightly. The US dollar index rebounded due to cash demand and rising oil prices, while silver plunged and the equity market was generally weak. Crude oil was strong because of supply shortages caused by the Iran - US conflict, and silver led the decline due to inflation expectations and a strong US dollar [37][43]. - Specific Asset Performance: - Stock Market: Global major stock indexes fell across the board, with emerging market indexes, the French CAC, and the German DAX falling by more than 6%. A - share styles were divided, with large - cap and value stocks performing better than small - cap and growth stocks. The Shanghai Composite 50 was basically flat, while the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 fell by more than 1% [46]. - Bond Market: Global bond yields rose significantly due to potential inflation pressure. The yield of the Brazilian 10 - year government bond rose by more than 50BP, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds in France, the US, and Germany rose by more than 10BP. The yield of the Chinese 10 - year government bond fell slightly [49]. - Foreign Exchange Market: The US dollar index was strong, and the Brazilian real depreciated the most against the US dollar. The Chinese yuan appreciated against the US dollar, and non - US currencies were under pressure, with both emerging and developed market exchange rate indexes falling [49]. - Commodity Market: The commodity market was divided. Energy prices rose, with crude oil soaring and natural gas rising for the first time in six weeks. Precious metals and industrial metals performed poorly due to a strong US dollar and asset re - allocation. Aluminum rose by more than 6%, and agricultural products showed mixed performance [53]. - Volatility: Commodity volatility was close to historical extremes, with the implied volatility of precious metals and crude oil exceeding the 95% historical range. Stock index volatility was relatively high, and the volatility of the foreign exchange and bond markets increased compared to the previous week [56].