弘业纯碱周报：分析师范阿骄-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the sentiment in the soda ash market was strong. Due to the geopolitical conflict, both the futures and spot prices rebounded. However, restricted by the weak fundamentals, the market showed a wide - range oscillation pattern. The short - term rebound was driven by the geopolitical conflict (Iran situation) which pushed up natural gas prices, and the rising energy costs supported the soda ash price. The 05 contract price was lower than the 09 contract, showing a structure where the far - month contract was at a premium to the near - month contract, indicating that the industry still had expectations for the improvement of far - month supply and demand. The core reason for the lack of strong driving force in soda ash was the weak supply - demand fundamentals, with high supply, high inventory, weak reality, and no strong catalyst forming triple suppression. In the short term (1 - 2 weeks), the trend was expected to be oscillating and slightly strong, but the upward space was limited. In the medium term, it would be weakly oscillating with downward pressure, and the rebound height was restricted [3]. - The core of this week's soda ash futures (SA2605) was the triple game of cost support, high - inventory suppression, and sentiment drive. Geopolitical conflicts led to energy price fluctuations, which caused emotional resonance in the energy - chemical sector. With the sharp rise in futures prices, the market sentiment was strong, and some enterprises raised prices by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The trading situation was differentiated. The enthusiasm of futures - spot traders to buy increased significantly when the futures price was high, but as the price fell, the restocking sentiment declined, and the restocking enthusiasm of downstream enterprises was not good [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the soda ash futures (SA2605) showed characteristics of rising and then falling, wide - range oscillation, and intensified capital game. By March 13, the mainstream price of domestic heavy - quality soda ash was 1250 - 1300 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - This week, the domestic soda ash production was 80.92 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 tons or 0.27%. Among them, the production of light - quality soda ash was 38.09 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 tons, and the production of heavy - quality soda ash was 42.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40 tons. In 2026, the new production capacity continued to be released, and the pattern of loose supply remained unchanged [4]. Demand - This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 82.25 tons, a week - on - week increase of 11.43%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 101.92%, a week - on - week increase of 8.60 percentage points [4]. Inventory - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 193.17 tons. Among them, the inventory of light - quality soda ash was 101.36 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24 tons, and the inventory of heavy - quality soda ash was 91.81 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.14 tons [4]. Profit - As of March 12, 2026, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 26.20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 56.45 yuan/ton. The profit of the combined - soda process (double - ton) was 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase. The cost side showed a downward trend [4].