南华期货煤焦产业周报：警惕铁水复产过慢导致的成本坍塌风险-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term surplus contradiction of coking coal has intensified due to factors such as the steady resumption of domestic coal mines, the increase in Mongolian coal supply, and the expansion of downstream blast furnace maintenance. The supply - demand contradiction of coke may further deteriorate, and the black - series prices may face downward pressure. However, the coal - coke price has some support at the bottom due to overseas energy price increases, but the surplus problem restricts its price elasticity [2]. - The near - term trading logic shows that steel billet and hot - rolled coil inventories in some areas have increased unexpectedly, and steel mills' profit pressure has increased. The far - term trading expectation is influenced by factors such as overseas coal disturbances and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which have an impact on coal - coke prices [9][10]. - The trend of coal - coke is expected to be in shock adjustment. The operating range of JM2605 is 1080 - 1190, and that of J2605 is 1650 - 1760 [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: Domestic coal mines are resuming production steadily, and most have returned to normal. Australian coal prices are falling, and the import volume of coking coal is expected to increase slightly. Mongolian coal supply pressure is high. The short - term surplus of coking coal is intensifying. The coking comprehensive profit has improved, and coke production is expected to increase [2]. - Demand side: The profitability of downstream steel products is under pressure, which may drag down the resumption progress of molten iron. The supply - demand contradiction of coke may further worsen. The terminal demand verification period from March to April is approaching, and the real - world data is becoming more important. The uncertainty in the Middle - East shipping route may suppress steel exports, and the black - series prices may face downward pressure [2]. 3.1.2 Market Positioning - Trend judgment: Shock adjustment. - Price range: JM2605 operates in the range of 1080 - 1190; J2605 operates in the range of 1650 - 1760 [12]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - Coking coal supply: The operating rate and daily output of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal - washing plants have increased. - Coking coal inventory: The inventory of 523 mining enterprises has decreased, while that of 314 coal - washing plants and independent coking enterprises has increased. - Coke supply: The production capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills have remained stable. - Coke inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises has decreased, while that of 247 steel mills has increased [16][18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The suggestion of implementing crude steel production control is conducive to enterprises' production planning. The reduction in global oil supply due to the Strait of Hormuz issue may have an impact on energy - related products [20][21]. - Negative information: The export of household air - conditioners has decreased, and the export of steel products has declined year - on - year. The impact of the Middle - East situation on steel exports is significant, and the construction site resumption rate is lower than the same period last year [22][23]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events - March 16: Pay attention to China's February year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail and the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries. - March 18: Pay attention to the US February PPI annual rate. - March 19: Pay attention to the upper limit of the US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the number of initial jobless claims in the week ending March 14. - March 20: Pay attention to China's one - year loan prime rate [24]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The Jiao coal 05 contract has been strengthening in shock recently, with the first resistance level at 1190 and the second at 1240. The coke 05 contract follows the trend of Jiao coal, with the first resistance level at 1760 and the second at 1810 [25]. - Monthly spread structure: Analyze the term - structure spread diagrams of Jiao coal and coke, as well as the seasonality of monthly spreads [31][33]. - Basis structure: Analyze the seasonality of the basis of Jiao coal and coke contracts [40][41]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Profit Tracking of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industrial Chain - The coking profit has expanded due to the increase in chemical product prices, while the steel product profit has shrunk due to the rise in coal - coke and iron ore prices [43]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The first - quarter long - term contract price of Mongolian coal has increased, and the inventory pressure in the supervision area is high. The FOB price of Australian coal has decreased, and the import volume of overseas coal is expected to increase slightly [48][51]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Coking Coal Supply - Side Deduction - The weekly average coking coal output in the next 4 weeks is expected to be about 10 million tons, and the weekly average import volume is expected to be 2.3 million tons. The theoretical molten iron balance point is 2.43 million tons per day [67]. 3.5.2 Coke Supply - Side Deduction - The average weekly coke output in the next 4 weeks is expected to be about 7.78 million tons, and the average weekly export volume is expected to be 210,000 tons. The theoretical molten iron balance point is 2.34 million tons per day [70]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side Deduction - The average daily molten iron output in the next month is expected to be 2.32 million tons per day. The theoretical supply - demand difference of coking coal is about 100,000 tons per day, and that of coke is about 20,000 tons per day [72]. 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Analyze the supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke, including production, import, total supply, theoretical molten iron, actual molten iron, inventory, and their changes [82].