【冠通期货研究报告】塑料日报：震荡上行-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 13th, with new shutdowns like Dushanzi Petrochemical's HDPE, the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87.5%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate rose 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%, still below pre - holiday levels due to seasonal changes. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. Despite the IEA's oil reserve release, slow delivery and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz led to a rebound in crude oil prices. New capacities from BASF (Guangdong) and Yulong Petrochemical were put into production in January 2026, and there are no new capacity plans in Q1. The domestic plastic supply - demand pattern has improved, and with the Middle East situation affecting the energy - chemical sector, if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, plastic prices are likely to rise. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption and the Middle East situation [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - On March 13th, new shutdowns led to a drop in the plastic operating rate to 87.5%. The PE downstream operating rate rose 5.21 percentage points to 33.83% after the Spring Festival. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. Crude oil prices rebounded due to slow reserve delivery and the Strait of Hormuz situation. New capacities were put into operation in January 2026, and there are no Q1 plans. The domestic plastic supply - demand improved, but downstream is cautious in purchasing due to high prices. If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't resume, plastic prices may rise [1] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased in positions, fluctuated upwards, with a low of 8226 yuan/ton, a high of 8584 yuan/ton, closing at 8416 yuan/ton above the 60 - day moving average, up 0.13%. Open interest increased by 15415 lots to 342523 lots [2] - Spot: The PE spot market had mixed price changes, ranging from - 200 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was priced at 8230 - 8970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9930 - 11110 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 8300 - 9500 yuan/ton [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 13th, new shutdowns made the plastic operating rate drop to 87.5%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 13th, the PE downstream operating rate rose 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%, not yet back to pre - holiday levels due to seasonality [4] - Inventory: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday increased by 20,000 tons to 820,000 tons, 45,000 tons higher than the same lunar period last year, at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $101/barrel. Northeast Asian ethylene prices rose $30/ton to $1000/ton, and Southeast Asian ethylene prices rose $30/ton to $970/ton [4]