【冠通期货研究报告】软商品日报：震荡为主-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For cotton, with domestic cotton inspection almost finished, commercial inventory declining, and downstream yarn market trading being dull, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. The upcoming Sino-US economic and trade consultations and a possible visit by Trump to China are important factors affecting cotton prices [1]. - For sugar, the Brazilian 2025/26 sugarcane production and sugar output have specific situations. The domestic sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand, with strong support at the bottom but limited upward drive. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [2][3]. Summary by Commodity Cotton - Domestic cotton inspection is basically over, commercial inventory is decreasing, and the downstream yarn market has dull trading. The spinning mills' profit is not good, and their inventory - replenishing attitude is cautious [1]. - New cotton planting in China is approaching, and the contraction of planting area supports the market [1]. - The upcoming Sino - US economic and trade consultations and a possible visit by Trump to China will affect cotton prices, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [1]. Sugar - The expected Brazilian 2025/26 sugarcane production is 665 million tons, with 606 million tons from the central - southern region. In the second half of January, the sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 6.1 million tons of sugarcane, much higher than last year. The proportion of sugarcane used for sugar production has dropped significantly [2]. - The cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in 2025/26 is 601.6 million tons (a 2.16% year - on - year decrease), and the sugar output is 40.24 million tons (a 0.86% year - on - year increase) [2]. - The EC weather model shows that the weather in São Paulo will be wet in the next 15 days, but it is unlikely to affect the crushing. The next sugar - cane crushing season will start in April [2]. - The domestic sugar market has basically realized the expected high yield, and subsequent trend - following market movements need macro or external market drivers [2]. - The estimated cost of processed and tax - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,064 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 5,164 yuan/ton. The estimated profit of processed and tax - paid Brazilian sugar within the quota compared with the Rizhao white - sugar spot price is 1,556 yuan/ton, and outside the quota is 456 yuan/ton [2]. - The sugar market is in a stage of loose supply and demand, with strong support at the bottom but limited upward drive. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [3].