沥青日报：震荡上行-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt price is expected to be strong and volatile following the crude oil price in the near future, with significant cost support and increasing supply and demand. Market participants should be cautious and monitor the development of the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week-on-week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - In March 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 251,000 tons or 13.0%, and a year-on-year decrease of 43,000 tons or 1.9% [1] - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 9% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [1][4] - This week, refineries in Shandong resumed stable production, and downstream stocking enthusiasm increased after the price increase. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 12.67% week-on-week to 176,100 tons, but it is still at a low level [1] - The asphalt plant inventory rate remained flat week-on-week, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - The asphalt price in Shandong decreased, and the basis dropped to a relatively low level [1][3] - China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention, and the Middle East raw material supply will be affected by the US-Israel attacks on Iran. The market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries in March [1] - Next week, Dongming Petrochemical will resume production, and the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand will gradually recover, and the supply and demand of asphalt will both increase. The cost support is significant [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2606 rose 3.10% to 4,089 yuan/ton, above the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,970 yuan/ton, and the highest price was 4,098 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 10,880 to 186,318 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,970 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract dropped to -119 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, Ningbo Keyuan and Xinjiang Fakangni stopped producing asphalt, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0% week-on-week, 5.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025, but it is still negative [4] - From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 6.0% year-on-year, continuing to decline from -4.7% from January to November 2025, still in a cumulative year-on-year negative growth situation [4] - From January to December 2025, the completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, continuing to decline from -1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - As of the week of March 13, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work, and the operating rates of most asphalt downstream industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 9% week-on-week, still lower than the level at the end of January [4] - As of the week of March 13, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 17.7% compared with the week of March 6, and the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [4]