原油日报：震荡上行：冠通期货研究报告-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price is at risk of surging due to frequent news about the Middle - East situation, which greatly disturbs the crude oil price. It is recommended to participate cautiously and pay attention to the progress of the Middle - East situation and the export of Middle - East crude oil [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情分析 - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the subsequent production increase plan is undetermined. This is mainly to cope with the sharp decline in Iran's crude oil exports after the attack. OPEC+ will hold the next meeting on April 5 [1] - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventory exceeded expectations, but the decline in refined oil inventory was large, resulting in an overall decrease in oil product inventory [1][4] - The US, Israel, and Iran are still attacking each other. Iran's daily crude oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The near - shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz for many days has led to production cuts in Middle - East oil - producing countries. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq, and Kuwait have cut production by up to 6.7 million barrels per day, accounting for about 6% of global supply [1] - Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei stated that Iran will not give up revenge and will continue to take strategic measures including blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The US energy minister said it is "highly likely" to provide escort for ships in the Strait of Hormuz by the end of this month. Although the IEA announced the release of up to 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow [1] 2.期现行情 - The main crude oil futures contract 2604 rose 5.41% to 750.8 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 724.0 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 778.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3,151 to 29,591 lots [2] 3.基本面跟踪 - EIA's latest short - term energy outlook expects the Brent crude oil price to be $78.84 per barrel in 2026 (previously $57.69 per barrel) and $64.47 per barrel in 2027 (previously $53 per barrel). Affected by the Middle - East conflict, it is expected to remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months and fall to $80 per barrel in the third quarter [3] - In terms of supply and demand, EIA expects global oil production in 2026 to be 107 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 107.8 million barrels per day; and global oil demand in 2026 to be 105.2 million barrels per day, higher than the previous forecast of 104.8 million barrels per day [3] - OPEC's latest monthly report maintains its global supply, demand, and economic forecasts. It expects global oil demand to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 106.53 million barrels per day, and by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027, reaching 107.87 million barrels per day [3] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) significantly reduced the global crude oil supply growth forecast for this year from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day and the crude oil demand growth forecast from 850,000 barrels per day to 640,000 barrels per day. It is expected that global oil supply will plummet by 8 million barrels per day in March [3] - On the evening of March 11, EIA data showed that the US crude oil inventory for the week ending March 6 increased by 3.824 million barrels, exceeding expectations. Gasoline inventory decreased by 3.654 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 1.349 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 117,000 barrels [4] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's average crude oil production in February was 28.63 million barrels per day, an increase of 164,000 barrels per day compared to January, mainly due to increased production in Venezuela, Iraq, etc. US crude oil production in the week of March 6 decreased by 18,000 barrels per day to 13.678 million barrels per day, near the historical high [4] - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.043 million barrels per day, a 4.35% increase compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly production increased by 11.44% to 9.241 million barrels per day, and diesel weekly production increased by 9.92% to 4.065 million barrels per day, driving the single - week supply of US crude oil products to increase by 6.71% month - on - month [5][7]