【冠通期货研究报告】螺纹日报：震荡偏强-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly strong" rating for the rebar market [1] Core Viewpoints - The rebar market is expected to be shockingly strong in the short term, with short - and medium - term moving averages showing strength. The future trend depends on the recovery of terminal demand, especially in real estate and infrastructure. If demand recovers, prices may rise further; if demand remains weak, high inventory will suppress prices [1][6] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures prices: The rebar main contract reduced its position by 49,467 lots on Friday, and the trading volume increased compared to the previous trading day, reaching 919,808 lots. The short - term moving average broke through the 5 - day moving average of 3120, and the medium - term 30 - day moving average was around 3092, and the 60 - day moving average was around 3108, indicating short - and medium - term strengthening [1] - Spot prices: The mainstream HRB400E 20mm rebar was quoted at 3250 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 108 yuan/ton to the spot [2] Fundamental Data - Supply - demand situation: - Supply: In the week of March 13, 2026, rebar production was 1.953 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 219,900 tons. There was short - term resumption of production, but the long - term trend was still contraction [3] - Demand: In the week of March 13, 2026, the current apparent demand was 1.7681 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 785,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 564,000 tons. It was a pulse - like rebound, and its sustainability needed verification [3] - Inventory: Social inventory was 6.5455 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 168,000 tons; steel mill inventory was 2.3962 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,900 tons; total inventory was 8.9417 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 184,900 tons. There was high - level inventory accumulation and great pressure to destock [3] - Cost and profit: The steel price valuation was at a low level, and geopolitical factors pushed up oil prices and shipping costs, providing support for commodity prices [3] - Macroeconomic aspect: The Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress on March 5, 2026, released positive signals. The government work report proposed measures such as issuing 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds, arranging 4.4 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. Market expectations for infrastructure and real estate support increased, and sentiment received phased support [5] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low steel price valuation, geopolitical factors pushing up costs, policy support expectations, implementation of steel mill production cuts, and cost support restoration [6] - Bearish factors: Persistent low terminal demand, weakening cost support, continuous inventory accumulation, slow destocking speed, and bearish capital position structure [6] Short - term View Summary - The rebar main contract opened higher on Friday and then moved shockingly strong. The short - and medium - term moving averages strengthened, breaking through the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. Short - term support was near the lower gap, and resistance was at the previous platform [6] - After the holiday, the supply side recovered slightly, remaining at a low level compared to previous years, which supported prices to some extent. For the demand side, real estate policies were mainly for destocking and stability, with limited incremental demand space, which restricted the upside [6] - Future focus should be on the apparent demand data to see if it can continue to recover and drive inventory destocking. The core of the medium - term trend is the recovery strength of terminal demand, especially the actual construction situation in real estate and infrastructure [6]