期货研究院格林大华期货研究院专题报告

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The report summarizes the weekly trends of the domestic futures market from March 9 - 13, 2026, covering various sectors such as agricultural products, non - ferrous metals and precious metals, black commodities, energy and chemicals, and financial futures. It analyzes the price movements, supply - demand fundamentals, and potential investment opportunities and risks in each sector. Summary by Directory I. Agricultural Futures - Corn: The spot price was oscillating strongly. The futures price had a weekly decline of 0.29%, closing at 2386 yuan/ton. The spot price is expected to correct in the short term, and the 2605 contract is short - term weak [6]. - Pig: The spot price was oscillating weakly. The 2605 futures contract had a weekly decline of 0.09%, closing at 11150 yuan/ton. The pig price may remain low in the short term [7]. - Egg: The spot price first fell and then rose. The 2605 futures contract had a weekly increase of 1.3%, closing at 3433 yuan/500kg. The egg price is short - term stable, but the supply pressure is significant [8]. - Jujube: The futures price was oscillating strongly. The CJ605 contract is in an upward channel. Consider short - selling after the upward momentum weakens [8]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar was running strongly. The domestic sugar supply - demand is neutral to bearish, but influenced by geopolitical conflicts and funds, the lower support is strong. Recommend a bullish attitude in the short term [8]. - Cotton: In the short term, the supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak, suppressing the price increase. In the long term, the supply is expected to shrink. The short - term price may oscillate between 15000 - 15600 yuan/ton [9]. - Apple: The decline of the main contract narrowed, and it is in a game between demand suppression and high delivery costs. It may return to a high - level oscillation pattern [10]. - Log: In the short term, the demand is seasonally increasing. In the medium term, the real - estate new construction is weak, dragging down the demand [10]. II. Non - ferrous and Precious Metals Sector - Gold and Silver: They slightly rose and then fell, showing a horizontal oscillation. Next week, pay attention to the support levels of 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 20500 yuan/kg for Shanghai silver [11]. - Alumina: The 2605 contract rose this week. The supply is expected to be loose, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to participate at low prices [12]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The 2604 contract rose this week. The supply is tightening, but the short - term downstream support is limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices [12]. - Caustic Soda: The 2605 contract was strong and oscillating. The supply is loose, but the geopolitical premium remains. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bearish in the long term [13][14]. III. Black Sector - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They oscillated and rose, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widened. The rebar demand has started, and the hot - rolled coil supply is shrinking while the demand is rising. There is still upward space if the demand recovers as expected [15][16]. - Iron Ore: The price rose this week. The iron - water production decreased, and the steel - mill inventory is at a low level. The port inventory is high, suppressing the price. It is expected to have upward space in the medium and short term [17]. - Coking Coal and Coke: They rose this week. The supply is loose, and the short - term demand growth is limited. They are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short term [19]. IV. Energy and Chemical Sector - Crude Oil: It and related products rose. The release of oil reserves did not solve the supply gap. It is expected to be strong, and short - term operation or waiting and seeing is recommended [20]. - Lithium Carbonate: It oscillated in a range. The price fell due to geopolitical conflicts and then was supported. It is expected to oscillate between 150,000 - 170,000 yuan [21][22]. - Methanol and Urea: Methanol prices rose significantly, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. Urea prices are expected to be strong in the range, with a price range of 1700 - 2000 yuan/ton [23]. - Polyester: The cost has increased, and the industrial chain is significantly differentiated. It is recommended to long the near - month contracts of good - fundamental varieties and short the far - month contracts of weak - fundamental varieties [24]. - Rubber Series: - Natural Rubber: It oscillated strongly. The overseas production areas are entering the shutdown period, and the domestic demand is recovering. The short - term bottom support exists [26]. - Butadiene Rubber: The price rose, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level due to the influence of the Middle - East conflict on raw material supply [27]. V. Financial Futures Sector - Stock Index Futures: The Shanghai Composite Index first rose and then fell. It is recommended to reduce the long - position of stock index futures and increase the proportion of CSI 300, or hedge risks through short - selling CSI 1000 or buying put options [28][29]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The prices of the main contracts fell this week. They may oscillate weakly under the influence of the Iranian situation and high oil prices [29]. Summary of Index Performance - The Nanhua Energy Index rose 14.12%, the Nanhua Petrochemical Index rose 10.77%, the Nanhua Coal - based Chemical Index rose 8.78%, the Nanhua Oilseeds and Oils Index rose 5.31%, the Nanhua Building Materials Index rose 3.51%, the Nanhua Black Index rose 2.69%, the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index fell 0.11%, the Nanhua Economic Crops Index fell 0.24%, and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell 1.52% [31].