棉系周报：需求表现尚可，棉价震荡偏强-20260313

Report Title - Cotton Weekly Report: Demand Shows Decent Performance, Cotton Prices Fluctuate with an Upward Bias [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The international cotton market, especially the US cotton market, is expected to fluctuate within a range, while the domestic cotton market is expected to show a slightly upward - biased trend in the short term. The cotton market has certain fundamental support, and investors can consider building long positions on dips [8][25][38] Summary by Directory Part 1: Domestic and International Market Analysis International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market: The fundamentals of the US cotton market have changed little, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. As of March 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton was 3.0442 million tons, accounting for 100.5% of the estimated annual US cotton production, a 4% year - on - year decrease. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 100.4%, a 4% year - on - year decrease, and that of Pima cotton was 103.8%, a 14% year - on - year decrease. The weekly deliverable ratio was 78.8%, and the quarterly deliverable ratio was 81.7%, 1.1 percentage points higher year - on - year. The final inspection volume is expected to be around 3.05 million tons, slightly higher than the production forecast of 3.03 million tons [8] - US Cotton Growing Conditions: As of March 10, the drought index of the main US cotton - producing areas (93.0%) was 229, a decrease of 3 from the previous week and an increase of 97 year - on - year. The drought index in Texas was 253, a decrease of 1 from the previous week and an increase of 65 year - on - year. Drought in the main cotton - producing areas is expected to continue from March to May, and may intensify in the central - western regions and ease in the eastern regions [8] - US Cotton Sales: As of the week of March 5, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 57,400 tons, a 68% increase from the previous week and an 8% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 8,300 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 83,900 tons, a 31% increase from the previous week and a 77% increase from the average of the previous four weeks [8] - CFTC: As of March 6, the number of unpriced seller contracts on the ON - CALL 2605 contract decreased by 3,239 to 17,576, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The total number of unpriced seller contracts in the 2025/26 season decreased by 1,019 to 32,083, equivalent to 730,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous week. The total number of unpriced seller contracts on ICE increased to 56,853, equivalent to 1.29 million tons, an increase of 1,475 from the previous week, or 30,000 tons [8] - Brazil: The Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (ABRAPA) predicts that this year's cotton production in Brazil will be 3.83 million tons, lower than 4.25 million tons in 2025. The output of Mato Grosso, the largest producing state, is expected to be 2.56 million tons, a 15% decrease from the previous season [8] - Global: According to the latest USDA March global cotton production and sales forecast, the global cotton production in March was 26.34 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 250,000 tons. China's total production increased by 100,000 tons to 7.72 million tons. Total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.84 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 280,000 tons to 16.63 million tons [8] Domestic Market Analysis - Supply Side: As of 24:00 on March 11, 2026, the cumulative public inspection of new cotton was 33,290,304 bales, totaling 7,514,731 tons, a 12.03% year - on - year increase. The cumulative public inspection volume of Xinjiang cotton was 7,128,929 tons, a 12.06% year - on - year increase. As of March 6, 2026, the total commercial cotton inventory was 5.2078 million tons, a decrease of 59,800 tons (1.14%) from the previous week [26] - Demand Side: As of February 27, the cumulative sales volume of national lint cotton was 5.146 million tons, an increase of 1.846 million tons year - on - year and an increase of 2.309 million tons compared with the average of the past four years. As of March 12, the operating load of spinning mills in the mainstream areas was 76%, a 3.83% increase from the previous week [26] - Overall: The current market contradictions are not significant. With the downstream industries resuming work, there are certain expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April". The cotton sales progress is still fast and at a high level in the same period of previous years. The cotton fundamentals have certain support [26] Futures Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: The current price difference between domestic and international cotton under the sliding - scale tariff is around 2,900 yuan/ton (about 3,900 yuan/ton under the 1% tariff), which is conducive to imports. The fundamentals have no obvious negative factors. The global cotton production in the USDA annual report was adjusted down by 3%. Overall supply is relatively tight, and if consumption continues to increase, there may be a tight - balance situation. The signing situation has improved [38] - Single - side: It is expected that the US cotton price will fluctuate slightly upward in the short term. The fundamentals of Zhengzhou cotton have certain support. Investors can consider building long positions on dips and avoid chasing high prices [38] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [38] - Options: Wait and see [38] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Price Difference: The report provides historical data on the price difference between domestic and international cotton under the 1% tariff, as well as the price difference between the September and January contracts [41][42] - Cotton Inventory: It shows the historical data of national commercial cotton inventory, spinning mill industrial cotton inventory, and reserve inventory [44] - Basis: It presents the basis data of cotton in January, May, and September, as well as the basis of US seven - major market upland cotton and the basis of cotton yarn C32S spot and Zhengzhou cotton yarn active contract [47]