白糖周报：原油价格持续高位，糖价弱势跟随-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to show a moderately strong trend due to high international oil prices and the downward adjustment of sugar production expectations by major producing countries [3] - The domestic sugar market is currently in the peak crushing period, and the sugar production in this season is likely to increase significantly, putting some pressure on the supply side. However, considering the low current sugar prices and the possible tightening of import - end policies in the future, the sugar price is expected to gradually rise after bottoming out. In the short term, due to the high prices of crude - oil - related products and the sharp rise in international sugar prices, domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate slightly on the strong side [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate slightly on the strong side in the short term. Zhengzhou sugar futures are also expected to fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [4] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [4] - Options: Sell put options in the short term [4] 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - Downward Adjustment of Production Expectations - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 181.29 million tons, a decrease of 480,000 tons from the previous forecast; the supply surplus will be 1.22 million tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons from the previous forecast. Most global institutions have recently lowered their sugar production expectations for the 2026/27 season [3][8] - Czarnikow expects the global sugar market surplus in the 2025/26 season to be 6.7 million tons, a decrease of 700,000 tons from the previous estimate; the global sugar production to be 184.4 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons from the previous estimate. It also points out that if the El Niño weather is strong, Brazil's sugar harvest may face difficulties [8] - Datagro expects a supply deficit of 800,000 tons in the 2025/26 season and a further reduction in supply in the 2026/27 season, with the deficit expanding to 2.68 million tons [8] - StoneX has significantly reduced the estimated global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season from 2.9 million tons to about 870,000 tons, a decrease of 70%. It also predicts that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 season will decrease to about 40 million tons, a decrease of about 700,000 tons from the previous forecast [8] 3.2.2 Brazil - End of the Pressing Season: In the second half of January, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 609,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons; the sugar production was 5,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2,000 tons [9] - Lower - than - Expected Increase in Production: As of the second half of January in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 13.286 million tons year - on - year; the cumulative sugar production increased by 341,000 tons year - on - year. The increase in sugar production this season may be only 300,000 - 400,000 tons, lower than the market's previous expectation of 1 million tons [13] - Ethanol Production and Sales: The current ethanol - to - sugar price is about 17.2 cents per pound, and the ethanol - to - sugar price is much higher than the current futures price of raw sugar. It is expected that the sugar - making ratio in the new pressing season starting in April in Brazil will be relatively low. The sugar - making ratio in this season is 50.6%. A one - point decrease in the sugar - making ratio will reduce sugar production by 800,000 - 900,000 tons [16] - Inventory and Exports: Brazil exported 2.2297 million tons of sugar in February, a year - on - year increase of 22%. As of February in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar exports decreased by 2.1% year - on - year. As of the end of January, the inventory in the central - southern region was 5.7058 million tons, a decrease of 1.3149 million tons from the previous half - month report, and a year - on - year increase of 462,000 tons [21] 3.2.3 Thailand - The sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 960,000 tons. As of March 11, the cumulative sugar production was 9.7927 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 283,500 tons [24] 3.2.4 India - The ISMA estimates that the total sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season will be 32.4 million tons, and the net sugar production after deducting ethanol production will be 29.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The AISTA estimates that the sugar production may be 28.3 million tons, a 4.4% decrease from the previous estimate [25] - As of February 28, 2026, the sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65 million tons. However, the recent increase has been very limited, and the final output may be lower than expected [27] 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Domestic Sugar Production - Guangxi: As of February 28, 2025/26 season, 2 sugar mills have completed crushing, a year - on - year decrease of 35. The cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 46.0358 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 367,600 tons; the sugar production was 5.6513 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 515,800 tons [32] - Yunnan: As of February 28, 2026, 52 sugar mills were in operation (the same as the previous year). The cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 12.0182 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0335 million tons; the sugar production was 1.4934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 93,100 tons [32] 3.3.2 Domestic Sugar Sales and Inventory - Guangxi: As of February 28, 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugar sales were 1.9923 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 891,000 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 35.25%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 3.659 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 375,200 tons [35] - Yunnan: As of February 28, 2026, the cumulative sugar sales were 697,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25,000 tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 46.71%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.89 percentage points. The industrial inventory was 795,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 118,000 tons [35] 3.3.3 Sugar Imports - In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 188,500 tons. In 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 4.9188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 562,200 tons [40] - In December 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 69,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 120,800 tons. In 2025, the total imports of syrup and premixed powder were 1.1888 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1879 million tons [40] 3.3.4 Import Profits - The out - of - quota cost of Brazilian sugar is 5,160 yuan, with a profit of 450 yuan; the out - of - quota cost of Thai sugar is 5,050 yuan, with a profit of over 550 yuan. Recently, the cost of imported sugar has increased, and the import profit has decreased [44]