每日核心期货品种分析-20260313

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of various futures commodities on March 13, 2026, including their price movements, market trends, and influencing factors [5][6] Commodity Performance Gainers - SC crude oil rose over 5%, rapeseed meal rose over 4%, and asphalt rose over 3%. Caustic soda, alumina, soybeans, and iron ore rose over 2% [5] Losers - Container shipping to Europe fell over 7%, Shanghai silver and tin fell over 4%, platinum and pure benzene fell over 3%, and styrene, 20 - number rubber, lithium carbonate, rubber, palladium, and polysilicon fell over 2% [6] Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) fell 0.08%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) fell 0.38%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) fell 1.14%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) fell 1.11% [6] Bond Futures - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) remained flat, 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF) remained flat, 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T) fell 0.07%, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL) fell 0.25% [6] Fund Flows - Inflows: Coking coal 2605 had an inflow of 370 million, methanol 2605 had an inflow of 267 million, and caustic soda 2605 had an inflow of 252 million - Outflows: CSI 2603 had an outflow of 2.605 billion, CSI 1000 2603 had an outflow of 2.575 billion, and Shanghai gold 2604 had an outflow of 1.955 billion [6] Market Analysis Copper - High - opening and low - closing, with an intraday decline. Due to an accident at Rio Tinto's Bingham Canyon Mine, all mining operations of Kennecott Utah Copper were suspended. Domestic copper production in March is expected to reach a record high. Although downstream demand is increasing, the market is still affected by the Middle East situation, showing a weak and volatile trend [8] Lithium Carbonate - High - opening and low - closing, with an intraday decline of nearly 3%. Supply is in a multi - empty balance, while downstream demand shows a downward trend. Although inventory is being depleted, the depletion rate is narrowing. It shows a range with support at the bottom and suppression at the top [10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The US crude oil inventory increase exceeded expectations, but refined oil inventory decreased. The Middle East situation has a significant impact on oil prices, and there is still a risk of price surges [11][12] Asphalt - Supply side: The weekly asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 23.0%. The expected production in March is 2.187 million tons, a 13.0% increase from the previous month. Demand side: Downstream industries are gradually resuming work, and the national shipment volume increased by 12.67%. It is expected that asphalt prices will follow crude oil prices and be strong and volatile [13] PP - The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71%. The enterprise operating rate is around 75.5%. The supply - demand pattern has improved, but downstream has a high - price resistance. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, prices are likely to rise [15] Plastic - The plastic operating rate decreased to around 87.5%. The PE downstream operating rate increased by 5.21 percentage points to 33.83%. New production capacity has been put into operation. The supply - demand pattern has improved, and prices are likely to rise if the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation [16][17] PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price increased by 50 yuan/ton. The PVC operating rate increased to 81.35%. Downstream demand is gradually recovering, but inventory pressure is still large. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, prices are likely to rise [18] Coking Coal - High - opening and high - closing, with an intraday increase of nearly 2%. Mine production and operating rate are high, but inventory has been significantly depleted. Steel mill demand is recovering slowly. If the Middle East situation cools down, there is an expectation of price correction [19][20] Urea - Low - opening and high - closing, with a weak and volatile trend. The supply side is stable and strong, and the market circulation of goods is abundant. Inventory has been significantly depleted. Downstream industrial demand is starting to pick up, and prices are expected to fluctuate based on domestic supply - demand [21]