PVC日报：高开后震荡运行-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region rose by 50 yuan/ton. PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, still at a neutral to high level in recent years. The average downstream PVC开工率 rose by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33% after the Spring Festival, but was 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Export inquiries improved due to rising Asian market prices. Social inventory increased during the Spring Festival and last week, remaining high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, PVC prices are likely to rise in the near term [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region rose by 50 yuan/ton. PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, still at a neutral to high level in recent years. The average downstream PVC开工率 rose by 3.49 percentage points to 39.33% after the Spring Festival, but was 3.13 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Export inquiries improved due to rising Asian market prices. Social inventory increased during the Spring Festival and last week, remaining high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, PVC prices are likely to rise in the near term [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract opened higher and then oscillated with a decrease in positions. The lowest price was 5601 yuan/ton, the highest was 5826 yuan/ton, and it closed at 5724 yuan/ton, above the 20-day moving average, with a decline of 0.42%. The position volume decreased by 17,519 lots to 864,228 lots [2]. - On March 13, the mainstream price of calcium carbide-based PVC in East China fell to 5685 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5724 yuan/ton. The current basis was -39 yuan/ton, weakening by 134 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a neutral to low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, PVC开工率 increased by 0.24 percentage points to 81.35%, still at a neutral to high level in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year from Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year from Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year from Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 tons/year production line of Jiaxing Jiahua started trial production in December 2025 [4]. - On the demand side, the real estate market is still in adjustment, with significant year-on-year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. In 2025 from January to December, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.7%; the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. The new construction area of houses was 587.7 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; the new construction area of residential houses was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%. The completion area of houses was 603.48 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%; the completion area of residential houses was 428.3 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.2%. As of the week of March 8, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 8.75% week-on-week. After the Spring Festival, the commercial housing transactions decreased week-on-week and remained at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [5]. - As of the week of March 12, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.24% week-on-week to 1.4072 million tons, 63.89% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival and continued to increase last week, remaining high [6].