【冠通期货研究报告】玻璃、纯碱日报：日内震荡偏强-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction of glass lies in the game between "supply contraction expectation" (cold repair + policy) and "weak real - demand" (real - estate downturn), and high inventory is the biggest pressure for the disk rebound. In the medium - term, glass demand expectation remains weak. In the short - term, the disk may maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend, but after the macro - influencing factors subside, it will face high - inventory and weak - reality pressure again [2]. - The core logic of soda ash is that the industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory has not improved. In the short - term, the disk rebounds due to improved macro - sentiment, geopolitical risks pushing up energy costs, and marginal inventory reduction. The short - term price change of soda ash depends on geopolitical situation, and its fundamentals have not changed much [4]. Summary by Related Content Glass - The glass main contract opened and moved higher, showing a volatile and upward - biased trend during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are upward, indicating a short - term volatile and upward - biased signal. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the 10 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 589,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 60,441 lots. The highest price during the day was 1146, the lowest was 1115, and the closing price was 1135, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.8% compared with yesterday's settlement price [1]. - The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 75.849 billion heavy boxes, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.788 billion heavy boxes or 4.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.96%. The inventory days are 33.9 days, 1.4 days less than the previous period [1]. Soda Ash - The main contract of soda ash opened and moved higher, showing a volatile and upward - biased trend during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are upward, indicating a short - term volatile and upward - biased signal. The pressure is near the previous high, and the support is near the 10 - day moving average of the daily line. The trading volume decreased by 645,000 lots compared with yesterday, and the open interest decreased by 15,558 lots. The highest price during the day was 1292, the lowest was 1258, and the closing price was 1277, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.31% compared with yesterday's settlement price [3]. - The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.9317 million tons, an increase of 0.009 million tons or 0.47% compared with Monday. Among them, light soda ash is 1.0136 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0024 million tons, and heavy soda ash is 0.9181 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.00114 million tons. Compared with last Thursday, it decreased by 0.00155 million tons or 0.80%. Among them, light soda ash is 1.0136 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.00137 million tons; heavy soda ash is 0.9181 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.00018 million tons. The inventory at the same period last year was 1.7352 million tons, an increase of 0.1965 million tons or 11.32% year - on - year [3].