沪铜日报：震荡偏弱-20260313

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shockingly weak" rating for the Shanghai copper market [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market opened high and closed low, showing an intraday decline. The fundamentals showed marginal improvement this week, but the impact of the Middle East situation outweighed the fundamental support, resulting in a shockingly weak market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The Rio Tinto Group's Bingham Canyon Mine in Utah had an accident, suspending all mining operations of its Kennecott Utah Copper. China's copper production in March is expected to reach a record high, with a month - on - month increase of about 52,800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.51%. After the holiday, downstream demand for copper increased marginally, and the inventory was still in the accumulation trend, but the accumulation rate slowed down. The copper cable industry's开工率 in February was 55.81%, a month - on - month decrease of 14.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.06 percentage points. The market transaction gradually warmed up, and the spot discount turned into a premium and continued to strengthen [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and closed low, with an intraday decline. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 70 yuan/ton, and in South China was 100 yuan/ton. On March 12, 2026, the LME official price was $13,003.5/ton, and the spot premium was - $107/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of March 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $56.10/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.70 cents/pound [8] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 315,100 tons, a decrease of 11,264 tons from the previous period. As of March 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 87,600 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 312,400 tons, an increase of 275 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 592,200 short tons, a decrease of 1,916 short tons from the previous period [11]