焦煤日报：关注周末中东局势-20260313

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market opened higher and moved higher, with an intraday increase of nearly 2%. Although the production and operation of mines are at a relatively high level, the coking coal price has risen due to the impact of overseas military conflicts, leading to an increase in the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises. The coking coal inventory has been significantly reduced this period. However, the recovery of domestic downstream demand has dragged down the price growth rate. Near the weekend, attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation. If the war cools down, there is still an expectation of a correction in coking coal prices [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Coking coal opened higher and moved higher, with an intraday increase of nearly 2%. The current mine operation rate has reached 87.16%, with a month - on - month increase of 4.84%. Production and operation are both at a relatively high level year - on - year. Affected by overseas military conflicts, the coking coal price has risen, leading to an increase in the purchasing sentiment of downstream enterprises. The coking coal inventory has been significantly reduced this period, with a month - on - month decrease of 8.58 tons compared to last week. Downstream coking enterprises and steel mills have replenished their stocks, with a month - on - month increase of 19.98 tons and 1.99 tons respectively. However, there is no significant increase in coke production. The profitability of steel mills has recovered, with an increase in operation rate of 0.63%, but the start - up speed is weaker than the same period in previous years. The weekly daily output of molten iron is 221.2 tons. The supply shortage, logistics and transportation obstacles, and inflation expectations have all pushed up the coking coal price, stimulating the enthusiasm of the market to purchase and replenish stocks. However, the recovery of domestic downstream demand has dragged down the price growth rate. Near the weekend, attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation. If the war cools down, there is still an expectation of a correction in coking coal prices [1]. 3.2 Spot Data - In terms of spot prices, the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal is 1045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is reported at 1280 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the closing price of the main contract futures is 1178 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 102 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply Data: From March 6th to March 13th, the operation rate of 523 domestic sample mines for coking coal was 87.16%, a month - on - month increase of 4.84 percentage points; the daily average output of refined coking coal was 77.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.92 tons [4]. - Demand Data: From March 6th to March 13th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 63.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4 tons; the daily average output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47 tons, unchanged from the previous month. The daily average output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 221.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.39 tons [5].