SPDB International·2026-03-13 11:16Investment Rating - The report reiterates a "Buy" rating for NIO (NIO.US/9866.HK) with a target price of $7.7 and HKD 59.9, representing potential upside of 40% and 33% respectively [1][3]. Core Insights - NIO achieved profitability in Q4 2025, with revenue reaching RMB 34.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 76% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 59%. The company delivered 125,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, marking a historical high. The gross margin improved to 17.5%, with automotive gross margin at 18.1%. The operating expense ratio decreased significantly, leading to a net profit of RMB 122 million for the quarter [5][8]. - For 2026, NIO plans to launch three new SUV models and aims for a delivery growth target of 40%-50% year-on-year. The company expects to maintain a gross margin similar to Q4 2025 in Q1 2026 and has successfully entered mass production of a new 5nm advanced process chip [5][8]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for NIO from 2024 to 2028 are as follows: - 2024: RMB 65.73 billion (18% YoY growth) - 2025: RMB 87.49 billion (33% YoY growth) - 2026: RMB 132.49 billion (51% YoY growth) - 2027: RMB 150.91 billion (14% YoY growth) - 2028: RMB 160.92 billion (7% YoY growth) [2][6]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 9.9% in 2024 to 17.4% in 2028, while net losses are projected to decrease significantly, turning to a profit of RMB 47 million by 2028 [2][6]. Market Expectations - The current market price for NIO is $5.47, with a 52-week price range of $3.02 to $8.02. The total market capitalization is approximately $13.58 billion [3][4]. - The report indicates that the market expects NIO's stock price to range between $4.0 and $12.5, with a consensus target price of $7.7 [3][4].