PP日报：震荡上行-20260313

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, and the anti - involution of the chemical industry is still expected. The Middle East situation boosts energy and chemicals. If the Strait of Hormuz cannot resume navigation, the PP price is likely to rise in the near term. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the festival and the Middle East situation [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Analysis - As of the week of March 13, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream demand recovered slowly due to low acceptance of high - priced raw materials. On March 13, the number of shutdown devices changed little. PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 75.5%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring was around 25.5%. Petrochemical inventory has been decreasing, and is currently at a neutral level in recent years. Although the IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil reserves, the delivery was slow. With ships attacked in the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's blockade statement, crude oil prices rebounded. After the Lantern Festival, downstream rigid demand was released, and the price of BOPP film rose [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated upward, with the lowest price of 8314 yuan/ton, the highest price of 8763 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 8603 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.33%. The position increased by 9927 lots to 420700 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 8070 - 8620 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On March 13, the number of shutdown devices changed little, the PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 75.5%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring was around 25.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week of March 13, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 45.71% week - on - week, and demand recovered slowly [4] - Petrochemical inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Friday increased by 20,000 tons to 820,000 tons week - on - week, 45,000 tons higher than the same period last lunar year, and is currently at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose to $101/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $30/ton to $1100/ton week - on - week [4]