银河期货纯碱玻璃周报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, affected by the conflict between the US and Iran, the price fluctuations in the commodity market have significantly increased. The price drivers are dominated by emotions, energy security, and sudden information. The conflict is difficult to end in the short term, and the impact on the Strait of Hormuz remains. As the situation progresses, the marginal utility of the conflict decreases, and each variety will differentiate based on its fundamentals. Information and pricing will enter the verification stage. It is recommended to trade cautiously due to increased fluctuations and risks [15][23] - This week, the price of soda ash increased by 2%, with limited gains but large fluctuations. It is expected that the price of soda ash will fluctuate widely at a high level next week, and macro - risks should be focused on. For trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a high - level wide - range shock for single - side trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [15] - This week, the weekly increase of glass was 4%, and the price turned stronger. It is expected that the glass price will fluctuate widely at a high level next week, and macro - risks should be focused on. For trading strategies, it is recommended to maintain a high - level wide - range shock for single - side trading, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [23] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash production was 809,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons (+0.3%), with heavy soda decreasing and light soda increasing. The daily production of soda ash increased to over 117,000 tons, and the daily production of Boyuan recovered to about 23,000 tons. The overall supply increased slightly. Jiangsu Debang's device resumed operation, and the output of Boyuan Yingen fluctuated slightly [8] - Some companies have device maintenance plans. For example, Jiangsu Debang had a 6 - day maintenance from February 28 to March 6, and Boyuan Yingen had a 4 - day production reduction from March 8 to March 12. There are also planned maintenances for other companies in the future [85] 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 825,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.4%. The apparent demand for heavy soda was 430,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5.3%), and that for light soda was 395,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 14.1%) [11] - The futures price fluctuated strongly this week. The mid - stream shipped about 8,000 tons, and the delivery price in Shahe was about 1,300 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan), corresponding to SA05. The price in Qinghai increased by 90 yuan/ton, and those in East China and North China increased by 30 yuan/ton respectively. The mid - stream increased purchases, and the upstream increased hedging [11] 3.1.3 Inventory - The upstream soda ash factory inventory accumulated to 1.932 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons. Among them, the heavy soda inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, and the light soda inventory decreased by 14,000 tons. Regionally, the factory inventory in the Northwest decreased by 14,000 tons to 822,000 tons, that in the Southwest decreased by 3,000 tons to 591,000 tons, and that in the North China decreased by 5,000 tons to 178,000 tons [14] - The mid - stream inventory increased significantly, and the social inventory remained basically unchanged at 278,000 tons [14] - Downstream users purchased on demand. According to Longzhong's previous statistics, for the soda ash inventory of float glass, in 32% of the samples, the inventory days in the factory were 19.55 days, a week - on - week decrease of 4.15 days, and the inventory days in the factory and the undelivered goods were 29.26 days, a decrease of 10.20 days [14] 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - This week, the daily melting volume of float glass was 146,900 tons, with 1,200 tons of cold - repair and 1,050 tons of ignition. One production line in North China was ignited, and one production line in North China and one in the Northwest were shut down [16] - According to Longzhong Information's production cost calculation model, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 106.69 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.57 yuan/ton; that using coal - made gas as fuel was - 39.38 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3.09 yuan/ton; and that using petroleum coke as fuel was - 7.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.29 yuan/ton [16] 3.2.2 Demand - In the demand side, the mid - stream in the Shahe and Hubei regions had a high enthusiasm for purchasing, and the local sales were good. The overall spot trading atmosphere was acceptable. The downstream demand recovered slowly, and the orders of processing plants were not good, but some replenished goods moderately under the price increase of raw material enterprises [20] - As of March 12, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 75.849 million weight cases, a week - on - week decrease of 3.788 million weight cases (-4.76%), and a year - on - year increase of 7.96% [20] 3.3 Other Related Data 3.3.1 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Prices - The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions showed different degrees of increase. For example, the price of heavy soda ash in East China increased by 30 yuan/ton, and that in the Northwest increased by 90 yuan/ton [26] - The futures prices of SA05, SA09, and SA01 contracts all increased to varying degrees. The positions of the main contract decreased by 120,000 lots, and the trading volume increased by 350,000 lots [26] 3.3.2 Glass Futures and Spot Prices - The spot prices of glass in different regions also increased. For example, the price of Shahe Great Wall increased by 30 yuan/ton, and that of South China Great Plate increased by 30 yuan/ton [132] - The futures prices of FG05, FG09, and FG01 contracts remained stable. The positions of the main contract decreased by 220,000 lots, and the trading volume increased by 690,000 lots [132] 3.3.3 Other Related Industries - In the photovoltaic glass industry, the production capacity utilization rate and the effective production capacity remained unchanged this week. The import and export volume of photovoltaic glass changed. In December 2025, the import volume decreased by 70.39% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 22.29% month - on - month [202][210] - In the food and beverage industry, the monthly output of white wine, beer, soft drinks, and dairy products changed. For example, the output of white wine increased by 6.71% month - on - month, and that of beer increased by 40.58% month - on - month [223] - In the lithium carbonate industry, the monthly output and price of lithium carbonate showed certain trends, and the production capacity utilization rate also changed [232]