小麦拍卖增量，盘面高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 3 - month USDA report is the same as last month. Due to the continued rise in crude oil this week, US corn has reached its highest level since January. The US corn 05 contract has risen to around 460 cents per bushel. The import profit of US corn and Brazilian corn is relatively high. After the Spring Festival, with the warming weather, farmers are selling more grain, and traders and downstream buyers are replenishing their stocks. Corn spot prices are rising, and port inventories are still low. However, the wheat auction volume has increased this week. It is expected that farmers will sell more grain in March, but the downstream and channel inventories are still low, so the spot price is expected to remain stable. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China has narrowed, and it is expected that the supply of North China corn will increase next week. The increase in supply at the northern ports in the short - term, combined with the increase in wheat auction volume, but the downstream inventory is still low, so the callback of the 05 corn contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the auctions of brown rice and corn, as well as the impact of rising crude oil on corn [4]. - The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has improved, and starch inventory has decreased, remaining lower than last year. The sharp rise in corn spot prices has led to a significant increase in starch spot prices. Starch enterprises are making good profits. It is expected that the supply of corn spot will increase next week, and by - product prices are high, so the starch spot price is expected to remain strong. The 05 corn starch contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level following corn [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Corn: The 3 - month USDA report is flat compared to last month. Crude oil has pushed up US corn prices. The 05 contract of US corn has reached 460 cents per bushel. The import profit of US and Brazilian corn is high. After the Spring Festival, the increase in farmers' grain sales and downstream replenishment has led to an increase in corn spot prices. Although the wheat auction volume has increased this week, it is expected that the corn spot price will remain stable in March due to low downstream inventories. The price difference between wheat and corn in North China has narrowed, and it is expected that the supply of North China corn will increase next week. The increase in supply at the northern ports in the short - term and the increase in wheat auction volume will limit the callback of the 05 corn contract. Attention should be paid to the auctions of brown rice and corn and the impact of crude oil [4]. - Starch: The operating rate of starch factories has increased, downstream提货 has improved, and starch inventory has decreased. The sharp rise in corn prices has led to a significant increase in starch prices, and enterprises are making good profits. It is expected that the starch spot price will remain strong next week, and the 05 corn starch contract will fluctuate at a high level following corn [4]. - Trading Strategies: - Unilateral: Try to buy US corn 05 below 440 cents per bushel. Go long on the 05 corn contract on dips [5]. - Arbitrage: Expand the price difference between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [5]. - Options: Adopt a cumulative purchase strategy for the 05 corn contract after a callback [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 International - Crude oil drives up US corn prices: The 3 - month US corn report shows stable yield per unit area and planting area, with a yield per unit area of 186.5 bushels per acre. This week, crude oil has continued to rise, and the 05 contract has reached a high of 460 cents per bushel. China has lowered tariffs on US agricultural products. The import cost of US Western corn in May is around 2,230 yuan per ton, and the import profit is good. As of March 12, the import profit of Brazilian corn arriving in July at Guangdong Port is 201 yuan per ton [9]. - Increase in non - commercial net long positions in US corn and decrease in ethanol production: As of March 5, the non - commercial net long position of US corn is 90,000 lots, showing an increase. US ethanol production has decreased. The 05 contract of US corn has risen to a phased high of 460 cents per bushel [16]. 3.2.2 Domestic - Decrease in deep - processing and feed enterprise inventories and increase in deep - processing consumption: As of March 11, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed mills is 30.06 days, a decrease of 1.09 days compared to the previous week and a 6.73% decrease compared to the same period last year. From March 5 to March 11, 149 major corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.269 million tons of corn, an increase of 49,100 tons compared to the previous week. As of March 11, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises is 3.377 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week and a 31.69% decrease compared to the same period last year. It is expected that the inventory will increase next week [20][21]. - Increase in northern port corn inventory and decrease in southern port grain inventory: As of March 6, the corn inventory at the four northern ports is 1.951 million tons, an increase of 224,000 tons compared to the previous week and a decrease of 3.107 million tons compared to the same period last year. The shipping volume at the four ports this week is 341,000 tons, an increase of 109,000 tons compared to the previous week. The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port is 524,000 tons, a decrease of 219,000 tons compared to the previous week; the foreign trade inventory is 172,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared to the previous week; the imported sorghum is 302,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared to the previous week; the imported barley is 740,000 tons, an increase of 101,000 tons compared to the previous week. The total grain inventory is 1.738 million tons, a decrease of 93,000 tons compared to the previous week [24]. - Slower grain - selling progress: As of March 12, the overall grain - selling progress of 13 provinces is 74%, a 4% increase compared to the previous week and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year; the overall grain - selling progress of 7 provinces (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan) is 73%, a 5% increase compared to the previous week and a 6% decrease compared to the same period last year [28]. - Starch: The operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has increased. From March 5 to March 12, the national corn processing volume is 598,400 tons, and the starch production is 304,900 tons, an increase of 6,600 tons compared to the previous week. The operating rate is 55.73%, an increase of 1.21% compared to the previous week. The increase in corn and by - product prices has improved enterprise profits. The profit per ton of corn in Heilongjiang is 12 yuan, an increase of 55 yuan compared to the previous week, and the profit in Shandong is 22 yuan, an increase of 56 yuan compared to the previous week. The downstream提货 is stable, and the increase in the operating rate has led to a decrease in starch inventory. As of March 11, the corn starch inventory is 1.209 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons compared to the previous week, a 0.82% decrease, a 0.9% increase compared to the previous month, and an 11.2% decrease compared to the same period last year [32]. - Substitute products: The wheat price is strong, with the arrival price in North China basically at 2,570 yuan per ton. The price difference between wheat and corn has narrowed, and the prices of North China and Northeast corn have risen, with the price difference between North China and Northeast corn expanding [39]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - Livestock and Poultry: From March 6 to March 12, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs is - 233 yuan per head, a decrease of 57 yuan per head compared to the previous week; the profit of purchasing piglets is - 144 yuan per head, a decrease of 56 yuan per head compared to the previous week. From March 5 to March 12, the breeding profit of white - feather broilers is 0.92 yuan per bird, compared to 1.04 yuan per bird last week. The egg - laying hen breeding cost is 3.62 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit is - 0.59 yuan per catty, compared to - 0.57 yuan per catty last week [43][49]. - Deep - processing: The operating rate of starch sugar has increased. This week, the operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup is 42.55%, an increase of 10.33% compared to the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup is 37.73%, an increase of 8.77% compared to the previous week. The operating rate of paper mills has increased. This week, the operating rate of corrugated paper is 67.65%, an increase of 7.28% compared to the previous week, and the operating rate of boxboard paper is 69.78%, an increase of 6.74% compared to the previous week [52].