苹果期货日报-20260313

Report Summary 1. Report Overview - The report is a daily report on apple futures, dated March 12, 2026, written by researcher You Zhenqi [1] 2. Futures Market - The main apple futures contract dropped 3.23% today, closing at 9,984 yuan/ton, down 333 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The intraday fluctuation range was 9,885 - 10,195 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 310 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 160,200 lots, and the open interest was 101,100 lots, indicating high market activity. The price trended downward after the opening, reaching a low of 9,885 yuan/ton and closing at 9,984 yuan/ton, showing a weak technical pattern [2] 3. Spot Market - The closing price of the AP2605 futures contract was 9,984 yuan/ton, with a basis of -2,036 yuan/ton, indicating that the futures price was higher than the spot price, showing a significant futures premium [4] 4. Influencing Factors - Price differentiation: The apple market shows a clear two - tiered pattern, with high - quality goods having firm prices and general and poor - quality goods having weak sales and pressured prices [5][6] - Low registered warehouse receipts: The delivery resources are continuously scarce, there is no physical selling pressure in the market, and bullish confidence is enhanced [6] - Quality differentiation suppressing prices: In the 2025/26 production season, the proportion of high - quality fruits is low, with common problems such as fruit rust and small fruit sizes in the main producing areas. The supply of high - quality goods is insufficient, but prices are difficult to increase, and the circulation of inferior fruits is difficult, resulting in weak overall price support [6] 5. Market Outlook - In the short term, apple futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern. Upward risks include more - than - expected supply contraction, more - than - expected demand recovery, and favorable weather factors. Downward risks include持续疲软的需求, intensified competition from substitutes, and capital outflows [7]