瑞达期货天然橡胶市场周报-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market was affected by multiple factors, and rubber prices fluctuated. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, while the futures market continued to fluctuate. The spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the market fluctuations, with low trading volume [8]. - The global natural rubber producing areas are in the seasonal supply off - season, and raw material prices are firm. Qingdao Port's bonded warehouses continued to accumulate inventory, while general trade warehouses reduced inventory, resulting in a slight increase in total inventory. Overseas is in the seasonal low - production season, the arrival of US - dollar standard rubber is decreasing. The situation in the Middle East is tense, synthetic rubber prices are rising, and tire enterprises are resuming production after the holiday, increasing the buying volume of natural rubber, and the出库 volume of Qingdao Port warehouses has increased, with the inventory accumulation rate narrowing significantly compared to the previous period [8]. - This week, the operating rates of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly week - on - week, and the production schedules of tire enterprises have basically returned to normal levels, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. The export of tire enterprises in some regions is facing resistance due to the uncertainty of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and there is a possibility of a slight decline in the short term [8]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,650 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,300 - 14,000 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Market Review: The natural rubber market was affected by multiple factors, with rubber prices fluctuating. The import rubber market's offer prices rose, and traders changed positions. The futures market continued to fluctuate, and the spot offer prices of domestic natural rubber followed the market. The trading volume was light [8]. - Market Outlook: The global natural rubber producing areas are in the off - season, and raw material prices are firm. Qingdao Port's inventory situation is complex, with bonded warehouses accumulating and general trade warehouses reducing inventory. Overseas supply is decreasing, and the demand from tire enterprises is increasing. The operating rates of tire enterprises have increased, but there are uncertainties in exports [8]. - Strategy Suggestion: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 16,650 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract between 13,300 - 14,000 [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price Trends: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 0.42% week - on - week, and the main contract price of 20 - number rubber fell by 1.84% week - on - week [11]. - Position Analysis: No specific analysis content provided in the text. - Inter - month Spread: As of March 13, the spread between the May and September contracts of Shanghai rubber was 95, and the spread between the May and June contracts of 20 - number rubber was - 145 [21]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of March 13, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 120,840 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from last week; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 49,291 tons, a decrease of 1,108 tons from last week [25]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price: As of March 12, the price of state - owned whole latex was 16,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - 20 - Number Rubber Basis and Non - Standard Basis: As of March 12, the basis of 20 - number rubber was 460 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week; the non - standard basis was - 1,295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from last week [35]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - Upstream: As of March 13, the price of field latex in the Thai natural rubber raw material market was 71 (+2) Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 58 (+1) Thai baht/kg. The theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars/ton from last week. The domestic Yunnan and Hainan producing areas are in the closed - cutting period [39][42]. - Import Volume: In December 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4% [48]. - Inventory in Qingdao: As of March 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 680,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons, an increase of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 119,600 tons, an increase of 1.27%; the general trade inventory was 560,900 tons, a decrease of 0.18% [51]. - Downstream - Tire Operating Rates: As of March 12, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 78.73%, a month - on - month increase of 4.20 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.80%, a month - on - month increase of 6.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.81 percentage points [54]. - Downstream - Tire Exports: In December 2025, China's tire export volume was 698,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48% and a year - on - year increase of 1.94%. From January to December, the cumulative tire export volume was 8.4307 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.38% [57]. - Downstream - Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales): In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared to January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared to 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. It is expected that the wholesale sales volume of the heavy - truck industry in March will achieve a slight year - on - year increase [60].