PTA日报-20260313

Report Overview - Report Date: March 12, 2026 [1] - Report Cycle: Daily Report [1] - Research Variety: PTA [1] - Research Analyst: Wu Yinqiu (Qualification No.: F03087154; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0018989) [1] 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main PTA futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 6,998 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 7,054 yuan/ton, up 10.45% or 662 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - The highest price of the day was 7,160 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 6,764 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 3.03 million lots, and the open interest was 1.2183 million lots [2]. - The mid - market price in the East China spot market was 7,025 yuan/ton. The futures were slightly at a discount to the spot, and the spot market was stronger than the futures [2]. 2. Influencing Factors - Geopolitical factors drove a sharp rise in crude oil: Tensions in the Middle East escalated, increasing shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and causing international oil prices to soar [5]. - Strong support from the cost side: PX prices rose due to the increase in crude oil prices. Domestic plants such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Sinochem Quanzhou, and Fujian United reduced their loads, and Ningbo Daxie stopped production, leading to a decline in PX supply expectations [5]. - PTA plant dynamics: Dushan Energy's 2.5 million - ton and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton plants restarted, Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million - ton plant increased its load, and Yizheng Chemical Fiber's 3 million - ton plant was shut down for maintenance. The PTA operating rate was 80.33% [5]. - Market sentiment: 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, but it was still difficult to make up for the impact of the blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and market concerns about supply intensified [5][6] 3. Market Outlook - The PTA market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern. Geopolitical risk premiums will drive the cost side to continue rising, and the expectation of PX supply contraction will strengthen cost support [9]. - However, the fundamental driving force of PTA itself is limited, and there is still pressure from spot surplus. Polyester demand is recovering normally, but there is a fear of high prices [9]. - In the short term, prices will mainly follow crude oil fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East situation, PX plant operating rates, polyester load changes, and port inventory [9]. - Market sentiment will dominate short - term trends, with obvious high - volatility characteristics [9]