如何看待十五五时期碳排放强度下降目标？

Report Summary - Report Date: March 13, 2026 [1] - Report Title: How to View the Target of Carbon Emission Intensity Reduction during the 15th Five - Year Plan Period? - Author: Tang Huiting Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View The report focuses on two aspects based on the latest deployments in the government work report and the draft outline of the 15th Five - Year Plan: assessing the feasibility of China achieving the 2030 carbon emission intensity target on schedule, and comprehensively judging the specific year of China's "carbon peak" and its impact on the subsequent distribution of emission reduction pressure [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Carbon emission intensity has the risk of deviating from the target, and the quantitative target for 2035 is set prudently - 1.1 The intensity target of the 15th Five - Year Plan is insufficient to support China in achieving the 2030 intensity target [5] - 1.2 From the 2035 NDC, see the adjustment direction of China's medium - term emission reduction path [5] 2. Forecast of China's peak - reaching year and outlook on emission reduction pressure during the 16th Five - Year Plan - 2.1 Forecast of the year when carbon dioxide emissions peak: Based on the intensity target [5] - 2.2 Realistic basis for the peak of greenhouse gas emissions: Based on the trend of fossil energy consumption [5] - 2.3 Forecast of the year when greenhouse gas emissions peak: Based on activity data [5] - 2.4 Comprehensive judgment [5]