尿素日报：波动率下降-20260313

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Urea prices opened lower and moved higher today, showing a weakening trend in a volatile manner. Factory quotes are firm, and market transactions are good. The state will release the national fertilizer commercial reserve to ensure fertilizer supply during the spring plowing season. The supply side is stable and strong, with sufficient market circulation of goods. The high - yield output is digested smoothly, and inventory has significantly decreased by 12.79%. With the start of downstream industrial demand, the urea market is expected to fluctuate based on domestic supply - demand fundamentals during the spring plowing season [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Urea opened lower and moved higher, with a weakening trend in a volatile manner. The state will release the 2025/2026 national fertilizer commercial reserve to meet agricultural production needs during spring plowing. The supply side is stable and strong, with short - term parking and resumption of production occurring frequently, and daily output basically within 230,000 tons. High - yield output is digested smoothly, and inventory has decreased significantly by 12.79%. With the end of the Lantern Festival and the progress of the Two Sessions, downstream industrial demand is accelerating. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased by nearly 10% this week, and there is still room for load increase within the month. The urea market is expected to fluctuate based on domestic supply - demand fundamentals during the spring plowing season [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1,885 yuan/ton, closed at 1,889 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.53%. The trading volume formed a positive line, and the open interest was 231,921 lots (+8,230 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 7,388 lots, and short positions increased by 8,801 lots. For example, Huatai Futures had a net long position of +2,660 lots, and Yide Futures had a net short position of - 2,174 lots [2]. Spot - Factory quotes are firm, and market transactions are good. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan range from 1,810 to 1,840 yuan/ton [1][5]. 3.3. Warehouse Receipts - On March 13, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,055, a net increase of 1,675 compared to the previous trading day. For example, Liaoning Jiashi increased by 75, and Hengshui Cotton and Linen (CNAGRI UR) increased by 500 [3]. 3.4. Fundamental Tracking Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes are stable, and the futures closing price has increased. Based on Henan, the basis has weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis for the May contract is - 19 yuan/ton (- 7 yuan/ton) [9]. Supply Data - On March 13, 2026, the national daily urea output was 221,900 tons, the same as yesterday, and the operating rate was 88.94% [10].