余粮不足+海外冲突，玉米再刷新高

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International conflict sentiment boosts prices, and limited domestic grain reserves, especially in the Northeast, lead to a strong upward trend in corn prices However, government measures like public bidding and import auctions, along with demand differentiation, create resistance to further price increases It is advised that grain - using enterprises purchase spot goods according to demand and maintain sufficient reserves, while traders should buy low and sell high [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Performance - The corn main 2605 contract hit a nearly 2 - year high of 2443 this week and then retreated under pressure The spot price rose slightly, with the Bayuquan corn flat - hatch price increasing from 2390 yuan/ton to around 2405 yuan/ton, and the Shekou Port corn arrival price rising from 2520 yuan/ton to around 2530 yuan/ton The corn basis fluctuated, and the futures price was close to the spot price The starch main 2605 contract oscillated upward this week, reaching a new high of 2766 The starch price soared, with the Weifang Jinyu corn starch price increasing from 2920 yuan/ton to around 3010 yuan/ton, and the basis strengthened [3] 3.2 New Grain Sales - The new grain sales are slow, with only 26% of the national grain remaining As of March 12, the national grain sales progress was 74%, 6 percentage points slower than the same period last year In the Northeast, it was 75%, 5 points slower; in North China, 67%, 9 points slower; in Northwest China, 82%, 5 points slower As prices rise, farmers are more reluctant to sell due to limited remaining grain, and downstream procurement has slowed down Also, Sinograin's public bidding has increased, with 253,000 tons put up for auction in March so far, and 250,000 tons sold, with a 99% transaction rate Imported corn targeted auctions continue [3] 3.3 Inventory Status - Port inventories vary, and downstream enterprises are reducing inventories As of March 6, the North Port corn inventory was 1.951 million tons, rising month - on - month, and the weekly shipping volume was 341,000 tons, also rising month - on - month The domestic trade corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 524,000 tons, decreasing month - on - month, while the foreign trade corn inventory was 172,000 tons, increasing month - on - month As of March 13, the corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises was 337,700 tons, at a record low for the same period in recent years, and the corn inventory of feed enterprises was 30.06 days, also decreasing [4] 3.4 Substitute and Import Situation - The substitution advantage of wheat is insufficient, and corn imports have increased significantly Although the wheat price has also risen, the corn price has increased more, further narrowing the wheat - corn price difference Corn imports have been on the rise since last October and may continue to increase to balance domestic supply and demand [4] 3.5 External Market Conditions - The US corn futures on the external market are oscillating strongly The ongoing US - Iran conflict has boosted ethanol demand due to rising energy prices, and the increase in fertilizer prices may raise planting costs, supporting the price [4] 3.6 Demand Situation - Feed demand is strong, and deep - processing demand is improving Pig prices are falling, leading to overall losses in pig farming As of March 6, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was - 58.89 yuan per head, turning from profit to loss, and the self - breeding and self - fattening profit was - 237.98 yuan per head, in severe loss In the poultry industry, egg prices have declined, and farming continues to make losses High inventory still supports current feed demand, but long - term feed demand growth may be negatively affected due to potential capacity reduction Deep - processing enterprise demand has improved The processing profit of starch processing enterprises has rebounded, and the operating rate has increased to 55.73% as of March 13 The alcohol processing enterprises are still in the red, but the operating rate has increased to 55.61% The operating rates of downstream starch sugar enterprises and paper - making enterprises have also increased [5]