Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [8]. Core Insights - The company is undergoing continuous organizational streamlining to enhance operational efficiency in response to ongoing pressures in the real estate market, which has affected both second-hand and new housing transactions [8]. - Due to a one-time cost increase at the end of the year, the profit forecast for Q4 2025 has been adjusted downwards, with an expected operating profit of 400 million RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 76% [8]. - The company is expected to achieve an adjusted operating profit of 7 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a 62% year-on-year increase, despite a cautious market outlook [8]. - The adjusted net profit forecast for 2026 is projected to be 6.6 billion RMB, a 31% increase year-on-year, driven by improved operational efficiency [8]. - The report highlights the company's strong cash position of 73.9 billion RMB and suggests a valuation based on a 20x adjusted PE ratio, leading to a target price of 58.46 HKD per share [8]. Financial Forecast Summary - The company's main revenue is projected to be 77.8 billion RMB in 2023, increasing to 93.5 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 28.2% and 20.2% respectively [2]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to be 9.8 billion RMB in 2023, decreasing to 7.2 billion RMB in 2024, with a significant drop of 30.1% in 2025, followed by a recovery to 8.7 billion RMB in 2027 [2][9]. - The adjusted EPS is forecasted to be 2.63 RMB in 2023, declining to 1.99 RMB in 2024, and then recovering to 2.50 RMB by 2027 [2][9]. - The company's EBITDA is expected to decrease from 8 billion RMB in 2023 to 6.6 billion RMB in 2024, with a further decline to 4 billion RMB in 2025 before rebounding to 9.2 billion RMB in 2027 [2][9].
贝壳-W（02423）：持续组织精简，提升经营效率