Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-03-13 13:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [1][10] Core Insights - Tencent is positioned as a core beneficiary in the AI era, leveraging its super entrance and ecological barriers for further evolution [7] - The company has a solid financial foundation and core scenarios that support its AI strategy, indicating strong potential for latecomers [9][12] - Tencent's AI capabilities are being enhanced through organizational restructuring and the recruitment of top talent, improving the efficiency of AI research and commercialization [9][40] - The company has established a leading position in 3D and image generation capabilities within the industry [9][40] - The ecological value of Tencent's AI will be amplified in the Agent era, with significant impacts on existing business lines such as advertising and gaming [9][12] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Tencent are as follows: - 2023: 609 billion - 2024: 660 billion - 2025E: 755.6 billion - 2026E: 848.8 billion - 2027E: 929.9 billion - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 9.8% for 2023, 8.4% for 2024, 14.4% for 2025, 12.3% for 2026, and 9.6% for 2027 [8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 157.7 billion - 2024: 222.7 billion - 2025: 260.2 billion - 2026: 296.9 billion - 2027: 337.1 billion - Year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are 36.4% for 2023, 41.2% for 2024, 16.9% for 2025, 14.1% for 2026, and 13.5% for 2027 [8] Valuation and Target Price - The overall target valuation for Tencent is set at 61,412 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 765 HKD per share, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the closing price on March 12, 2026 [10][12]